The UMBC Retrievers (22-10, 13-4 AmEast) and Hartford Hawks (19-12, 12-5 AmEast) will square off at Retriever Activities Center to bring the regular season to a close. UMBC is a 5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 140.5 points. Action starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 6, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPN 3.
Hartford Hawks vs. UMBC Retrievers Odds Preview
The last time the Hawks played, they were victorious over the New Hampshire Wildcats, 71-60. With 19 points and six rebounds, J.R. Lynch had a good game for Hartford. Hartford dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.468 (above their season average of 0.205) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.521 (below their season average of 0.528). New Hampshire was 0.131 and 0.426, respectively, for those same stats.
The Retrievers will look to maintain momentum after beating the Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks in their last outing, 89-77. With 18 points on 8-for-19 shooting, Jairus Lyles was the top scorer from either team. UMBC dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a turnover percentage of 11.6 (better than their season average of 15.6) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.5 (above their season average of 27.5). Massachusetts-Lowell was 15.6 and 21.6, respectively, for those same stats.
Points at the line could be rare for Hartford in this meeting. The Hawks rank 277th in the NCAA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.212, while UMBC ranks 68th in FTA rate allowed (0.204).
These two teams are complete opposites in terms of the O/U total. Games including Hartford have gone under 100.0 percent of the time, while 66.7 percent of UMBC games have finished over. The Retrievers hold the clear advantage straight up (SU) (22-10 vs. 19-12), but the Hawks have been superior against the spread (ATS) (3-0 vs. 2-1).
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Hawks, it’s been John Carroll, who has averaged 13.4 points and 8.8 rebounds, while the Retrievers have received great contributions from K.J. Maura (15.2 points, 5.6 assists and 1.6 steals).
These two teams have already met twice this year, with the Retrievers winning both. In the most recent contest, Maura scored a game-high 25 points and the Retrievers topped the Hawks 62-53. He also put up five rebounds. The Retrievers played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.200 and an effective field goal percentage of 0.520. The Hawks recorded marks of 0.054 and 0.446, respectively, for those same stats.
Hartford Hawks at UMBC Retrievers Free Prediction
College Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – UMBC, ATS Winner – Hartford, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Hawks average 33.7 rebounds per game, which ranks 215th in the NCAA. The Retrievers rank 217th in rebounds allowed per game (36.5).
- Hartford is 2-0 ATS on the road with 1 under and 0 overs.
- UMBC is 1-0 ATS at home with 1 over and 0 unders.
- UMBC ranks 29th in three pointers attempted per game (26.4) while Hartford ranks 201st in three pointers allowed per game (23.0).
- The Retrievers rank 32nd in steals per game (7.6) while the Hawks rank 146th (6.0).
- UMBC averages 15.5 assists per game, which ranks 55th in the NCAA. Hartford ranks 142nd in assists allowed per game (13.4).
Betting Trends:
- UMBC is 1-0 ATS with 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Hartford is 1-0 ATS with 1 under.
- The Retrievers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.0, up from 4.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 65.0 points per game (5.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 60.6 points per game (8.9 below their season average).
