Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Week 15 Free Betting Pick

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The Bears (-6) are gearing up to host the Green Bay Packers in Chicago. Fans can catch the action live on FOX and this NFC North game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Green Bay is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 6 points in this NFC game. The Packers are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Bears are -230. If one team can catch a lucky break early it will create a solid live betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points.

Early action has leaned to both the Bears and the under. The opening line was initially -4 and the game’s total was set originally at 46.5.

The underwhelming Packers are down 10.1 units so far and 5-7-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 7-6.

The Bears have gained 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 9-4 ATS and eight of their games have gone over the total.

The Packers have gone only 5-7-1 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against NFC North opponents. The Bears are 9-4 SU overall and 3-1 SU versus divisional foes.

The Packers hope to make it two in a row 34-20 win over Atlanta in Week 14 in which Aaron Rodgers completed 21 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns. Aaron Jones (78 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) provided the ground attack while Davante Adams (seven receptions, 81 yards, one TD) and Randall Cobb (five catches, 43 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Chicago just earned a 15-6 win over the Rams last week. The Bears defensive unit did its job in the victory, holding the Rams to just 187 passing yards and 52 yards on the ground. Robert Woods had a productive outing in the loss for Los Angeles, accounting for 61 yards on seven catches. For Chicago, Mitchell Trubisky completed 16-of-30 passes for 110 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Jordan Howard (101 yards on 19 rush attempts) and Tarik Cohen (69 yards on nine carries) mounted the running game while Allen Robinson II (five receptions, 42 yards) and Cohen (four catches, 20 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Green Bay’s run the ball on 35.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Chicago has a rush percentage of 46.6 percent. The Packers have run for 108.2 yards/game (including 86.8 per game versus North opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Bears are putting up 121.5 rush yards per game (94.8 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Bears ought to have the more disruptive lines up front, since their offensive line has allowed just 29 sacks while their D-line has logged 40 sacks. The Packers O-line has given up 41 sacks and their defense has generated only 40 sacks.

The Packers offensive scheme has averaged 288.8 yards in the air overall (315.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 23 passing scores so far. The Bears have produced 238.7 pass yards per game (232 in the NFC) and have 25 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Green Bay has allowed 126.2 rush yards and 248.0 pass yards per game. The Chicago D has given up 246.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 83.2 yards per game on the ground. The Bears are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.14 to opposing QBs, while the Packers have allowed a 6.48 ANY/A.

Rodgers likely has the advantage over Daniel in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.44for the season and 5.16 over the past two games. Daniel’s ANY/A is 5.24 for the season and 4.25 over his last two outings.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears NFL Pick

SU Winner: Bears, ATS Winner: Bears, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • Each team defense has recorded 40 sacks this season.
  • Chicago has lost seven fumbles in 2018 while the Green Bay offense has lost 10.
  • The Packers offense has produced 14 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bears have put up nine such plays.
  • The Green Bay defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Chicago has given up nine such plays.
  • The Green Bay offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Chicago has created 15 such runs.
  • The Packers defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bears have given up five such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Chicago’s previous outing was 50.5. The under cashed in the team’s 15-6 win over the Rams.
  • In its last three games, Chicago is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three matchups, Green Bay is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Chicago has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a -3-point loss to New York on December 2nd accounting for the one defeat over that span.
  • The Over/Under for Green Bay’s previous game was 50.5. The over cashed in the team’s 34-20 win over Atlanta.
  • As a team, Green Bay has produced 4.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its last two.
  • Chicago has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its past two.