The Golden State Warriors (2-0), 3.5-point favorites, will travel to Pepsi Center to challenge the Denver Nuggets (2-0). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 231 points and it can be seen on NBC Sports – Bay Area at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 21, 2018.
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
The Nuggets come in on a high note after blowing out the Phoenix Suns in their last contest, 119-91, as 2-point underdogs. The Warriors, on the other hand, defeated the Utah Jazz, 124-123, but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites. The Denver game went 12.5 points under the projected point total of 222.5, while the Golden State game went 28.5 points over the projected point total of 218.5.
Golden State’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Utah. The Warriors had a rate of 0.621, while the Jazz posted a mark of 0.556. The Nuggets, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.1 vs. 18.2) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.559 vs. 0.448). Nikola Jokic played well for Denver, racking up 35 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists on his way to his zeroth triple-double this year. Meanwhile, Kevin Durant played a pivotal role for Golden State with 38 points, nine rebounds and seven assists.
The offensive glass could be a huge advantage for Denver in this meeting. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.7 percent), while Golden State ranks 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent). Additionally, the Warriors’ top-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 112.6) will clash against the Nuggets’ 23rd-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 108.9).
Since last season, the Warriors are 60-24 straight up (SU) and 51-47-3 against the spread (ATS). Golden State games have had a slight tendency to finish under the projected point total since last season (53.5 percent).
Meanwhile, the Nuggets, have records of 48-36 SU and 46-35-2 ATS since last season. Vegas has had a tendency to place the total low when Denver has been involved over that same stretch as 60.2 percent of their games have gone over the projected point total.
This series was highly competitive last year, as the teams split their four games last season. The Nuggets won the last game 115-108. Denver did a great job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (25-29; 86.2 percent). Golden State, on the other hand, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.547 vs. 0.495).
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
- The Nuggets rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while the Warriors rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (30.1).
- Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (14.0) while Golden State ranks 28th (10.6).
- The Warriors rank first in fast break points per game (18.7) while the Nuggets rank 22nd in fast break points allowed per game (12.8).
- Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (49.0) while Golden State ranks 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
- Denver ranks 14th in steals per game (7.7) while Golden State ranks 27th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
- The Warriors rank first in assists per game (28.6) while the Nuggets rank 25th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
- The Warriors rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while the Nuggets rank 15th (4.8).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Golden State ranks eighth (42.6).
- Golden State averages 17.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Denver ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.5).
- Golden State is 23-7 when they allow below 100 points, while Denver is 17-2.
- The Warriors are 72-17 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 41-26.
