The Golden State Warriors (41-11), the NBA’s top scoring team, will take on the Denver Nuggets (27-25) at Pepsi Center. The games Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 229 points with Golden State opening as a 5.5-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 3, 2018, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Preview
In the Warriors last matchup, they defeated the Sacramento Kings, 119-104. Kevin Durant was the top scorer from either team with 33 points on 12-for-17 shooting. Golden State played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.6 (below their season average of 21.2) and a free throw rate of 0.175 (below their season average of 0.200). For those same stats, Sacramento was 12.0 and 0.105, respectively.
The Nuggets come in on a high note after edging the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last contest, 127-124. Denver rallied around Nikola Jokic, who racked up 29 points, 14 assists and 13 rebounds. This gave him his second triple-double of the season. The Nuggets held the Thunder to an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.9 (below their season average of 28.4) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.593 (above their season average of 0.523).
Denver appears to have an edge on the offensive glass in this contest. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.5 percent), while Golden State ranks 20th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent). Moreover, the Warriors rank first in offensive efficiency (113.9), while the Nuggets rank 22nd in defensive efficiency (107.6).
Of Golden State’s 51 games that accepted bets, 28 have finished over the O/U total, while 30 of Denver’s 52 games have finished under the O/U total. The Warriors have the superior straight up (SU) record (41-11 vs. 27-25), but the Nuggets have been better against the spread (ATS) (23-26-3 vs. 21-28-2).
Jokic has been excellent over the last five games for Denver, averaging 16.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game.
These two teams have already met three times this year, with the Warriors winning two. Draymond Green put up 23 points, 10 assists and five rebounds in the most recent game, in which the Warriors defeated the Nuggets 124-114, resulting in a push. The two teams combined for 238 points, which was 10.5 points above the projected point total of 227.5 points. Golden State’s 0.176 free throw rate was their largest strength over Denver, who had a rate of 0.126.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets average 13.8 fast break points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 27th in fast break points allowed per game (13.8).
- Golden State averages 8.2 steals per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Denver ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
- Golden State ranks 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.1) while Denver ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.2).
- Denver ranks ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.3) while Golden State ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (28.8).
- Golden State is 12-14 ATS on the road, while Denver is 14-12-1 ATS at home.
- The Warriors have 15 overs and 11 unders in 26 road games.
- In 27 home games, the Nuggets have 16 unders and 11 overs.
- When allowing below 100 points, Golden State is 11-2 and Denver is 13-2.
- In games where they reach the century mark, the Warriors are 38-7 and the Nuggets are 21-16.
- The Warriors average 7.8 blocks per game, which ranks first in the league. The Nuggets rank 16th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
- Golden State averages 30.4 assists per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Denver ranks 27th in assists allowed per game (24.4).
- The Nuggets rank first in second chance points allowed per game (9.6) while the Warriors rank 26th (13.5).
- The Nuggets rank fifth in rebounds per game (45.0) while the Warriors rank 12th (44.2).
- Denver averages 48.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Golden State ranks 26th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.3).
Betting Trends:
- Denver is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Golden State is 0-4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Nuggets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.8, up from 0.6 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 115.2 points per game (0.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.6 points per game (5.0 above their season average).
