The Minnesota Timberwolves (33-41) will be 9.5-point underdogs at home in the Target Center when they square off against the Golden State Warriors (51-23). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 230 points and it will air on NBC Sports – Bay Area at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, March 29, 2019.
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Odds
The Warriors will be hoping for similar success after covering the 9.5-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in their last outing, 118-103. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, were topped by the Los Angeles Clippers, 122-111, and failed to cover as 3-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Golden State game finished 1 point over the projected point total of 220, while the Minnesota game finished 4 points over the projected point total of 229.
The Warriors had a ridiculous effective field goal percentage of 0.625 (above their season average of 0.560), while the Grizzlies had a free throw rate of 0.150 (below their season average of 0.209). Minnesota, meanwhile, held Los Angeles to an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.3 (below their season average of 22.5). Minnesota rallied around Karl-Anthony Towns, who finished with 24 points and 13 rebounds. Stephen Curry, meanwhile was a key piece for Golden State with 28 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
In their three matchups this year, the Warriors have won all three. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 224 points, just under the projected point total of 229. Golden State won 117-107, covering as a 6-point favorite. Golden State made 19 of its 42 three pointers (45.2 percent). Minnesota, on the other hand, did an excellent job of making free throws (26-32; 81.3 percent). In the victory, Curry led all scorers with 36 points.
Of the Warriors’ 74 games, 39 have finished under the projected point total. Golden State has a respectable 51-23 straight up (SU) record, but they have trouble covering the spread (31-42-1 against the spread (ATS)).
In opposition of Golden State, games including the Timberwolves have finished over the O/U total 54.1 percent of the time. Moreover, Minnesota owns records of 33-41 SU and 35-39 ATS.
Minnesota could put on a ball-control clinic in this contest. Minnesota ranks third in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while Golden State forces the seventh-fewest turnovers (12.4 percent). Furthermore, the Warriors’ top-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 114.3) will attempt to take advantage of the Timberwolves’ 23rd-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 110.3).
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
- The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Warriors rank 13th (7.5).
- Golden State ranks first in assists per game (29.2) while Minnesota ranks 27th in assists allowed per game (26.1).
- The Timberwolves rank 10th in points in the paint per game (50.1) while the Warriors rank 29th (42.8).
- Golden State ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (34.3) while Minnesota ranks 25th (28.6).
- Minnesota averages 17.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Golden State ranks 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
- The Warriors rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while the Timberwolves rank 26th (5.6).
- The Warriors rank second in fast break points per game (19.3) while the Timberwolves rank 19th (11.9).
- Golden State averages 46.0 rebounds per game, which ranks 11th in the league. Minnesota ranks 18th in rebounds allowed per game (45.3).
- Minnesota ranks second in second chance points per game (15.5) while Golden State ranks 23rd (12.4).
- Golden State is 8-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Minnesota is 12-0.
- The Warriors are 51-15 when they reach 100 points, while the Timberwolves are 32-35.
- Golden State is 18-19 ATS on the road, while Minnesota is 19-16 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 20 of the Warriors’ 37 road games, while 20 of the Timberwolves’ 35 home games have gone over.
- The Warriors are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Golden State has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Minnesota has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 111.8 points per game (5.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.8 points per game (3.7 below their season average).
- The Timberwolves’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.0, up from 1.1 for the season.