Georgia State Panthers vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: College Football Free Betting Prediction

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Two schools that like to run the football, Coach Matt Viator and the Louisiana-monroe Warhawks are getting two points when they play host to their conference rival Georgia State Panthers to JPS Field at James L. Malone Stadium. ESPN+ has the TV rights and the game is scheduled to get underway at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Georgia State Panthers at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

Louisiana-Monroe is the underdog in this SBC game and is currently getting 2 points. The Panthers are also receiving -130 moneyline odds while the Warhawks are +110. It appears that there should be some good live betting opportunities for this game, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) pretty highly at 74. With the spread standing at Louisiana-Monroe +2, oddsmakers are speculating that this could be a 36-38 win for the Panthers.

This game’s line opened at 2.5, while the O/U hasn’t moved since it opened at 74.

The profitable Panthers have gained 5.2 units so far in 2019 and are 5-1-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 5-3.

The Warhawks have lost 2.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-6 ATS and have an even O/U record of 4-4.

The Panthers are 6-2 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against conference opponents. The Warhawks are 3-5 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.

Georgia State enters this matchup on a zero-game winless skid while Louisiana-Monroe has won zero in a row. The Panthers are coming off a resounding 52-33 win over Troy on October 26 where their secondary allowed the Trojans to air it out for 421 yards and two touchdowns. Khalil McClain had a productive day for the Trojans in that one with 128 yards and a score on eight catches. On the offensive side, Dan Ellington completed 18 passes on 25 attempts for just 189 yards, two scores and one interception. Tra Barnett (242 yards on 34 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Ellington (32 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) mounted the running attack in the win. Sam Pinckney (five receptions, 40 yards) and Roger Carter (four catches, 39 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

On November 2, Arkansas State got the victory against this Louisiana-Monroe crew by a score of 48-41. The Warhawks defense allowed the Red Wolves to pass for 307 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 207 yards and four scores. Marcel Murray shredded the defense, recording 175 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 24 attempts for Arkansas State. For Louisiana-Monroe, Caleb Evans completed 24-of-37 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns. Josh Johnson (60 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Evans (148 yards on 12 carries, three TDs) led the ground game in the defeat as Jonathan Hodoh (six receptions, 65 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Georgia State has run the ball on 61.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisiana-Monroe has an overall rush percentage of 53 percent. The Panthers have rushed for 257.3 yards per game (including 321 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 20 scores via handoffs this year. The Warhawks are logging 206.1 rushing yards per game (172.5 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.

The Panthers offense has logged 221.4 yards/game through the air overall (228 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing scores so far. The Warhawks have recorded 223.6 pass yards per contest (207 against SBC foes) and have 12 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Georgia State has allowed 196.6 rush yards and 252 pass yards per game. The Louisiana-Monroe defense has allowed 259.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 235.3 yards per game on the ground. The Warhawks are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.32 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers have given up a 7.92 ANY/A.

Offensively, Ellington has amassed 1,539 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 138-of-210 attempts with 15 passing scores and only four interceptions. Ellington’s got a 7.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.63 over the last two outings.

The Panthers will probably try to maintain tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Tra Barnett (820 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Seth Paige (401 rush yards, four rush TDs) have delivered in the Georgia State offensive scheme.

In the home locker room, Caleb Evans has connected on 143-of-232 passes for 1,612 yards, 12 TDs and four INTs. Evans’ ANY/A stands at 6.58 for the year and 4.67 across his past two games.

The Warhawks also prefer to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Caleb Evans (zero receiving yards), Josh Johnson (772 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Markis McCray (67 rush yards, 334 receiving yards, two TDs) have gotten a lot of touches lately.

When these two squads met a year ago, Georgia State knocked off Louisiana-Monroe soundly 46-14.

Georgia State Panthers at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Betting Pick

SU Winner: Louisiana-Monroe, ATS Winner: Louisiana-Monroe, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The Georgia State D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times this season. Louisiana-Monroe has produced 15 sacks.
  • Both offenses have lost five fumbles this season.
  • The Panthers offense has produced five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Warhawks have accounted for one such play.
  • The Georgia State defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while Louisiana-Monroe has given up 10 such plays.
  • The Georgia State offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Louisiana-Monroe has created 16 such runs.
  • The Panthers defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Warhawks have given up 18 such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Louisiana-Monroe’s previous game was set at 69.5. The over cashed in the 48-41 loss to Arkansas State.
  • Over its last three matches, Louisiana-Monroe is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three matchups, Georgia State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Louisiana-Monroe has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 10-point win over Texas State on October 10th representing its only victory over that span.
  • The O/U for Georgia State’s last game was 67.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-33 win over Troy.
  • Georgia State has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its past three contests and 6.0 over its last two.
  • Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.1 over its past two.