A couple of schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Shawn Elliott and the Georgia State Panthers (+11.5) are set to play host to their SBC counterpart Georgia Southern Eagles (-11.5) at Parker H. Petit Field at Georgia State Stadium. ESPN+ has the TV rights and the afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Georgia State Panthers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Georgia Southern is tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 11.5 points. The Eagles are also receiving -470 moneyline odds while the Panthers are +340. If one side finds paydirt early it will generate a worthy in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 58 points.
The surprising Eagles are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.3 units so far. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 6-4.
The hapless Panthers have lost 5.5 units this season. The team is 2-8-1 ATS and also has an O/U record of 6-4.
The Eagles are 8-3 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Panthers are 2-9 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
The Eagles want to make it two in a row 41-17 victory over Coastal Carolina last week. The D did its part in the win, holding the Chanticleers to just 115 passing yards and 74 yards on the ground. Torrance Marable had a good day for the Chanticleers in that one with 45 rushing yards on 12 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Shai Werts completed four passes for only 33 yards. Wesley Fields (148 yards on 20 rush attempts, two TDs) and Wesley Kennedy III (59 yards on eight carries) led the running attack in the win while Kennedy III (two receptions, nine yards) and Ellis Richardson (one catch, two yards) shared the receiving duties.
Georgia State just lost convincingly 45-17 to Appalachian State. The defense let the Mountaineers kill the clock by rushing for 228 yards on 39 attempts, including two rush TDs. Darrynton Evans had a good outing in the win, recording 127 rushing yards and a score on 15 attempts for Appalachian State. For Georgia State, Dan Ellington completed 10-of-21 passes for 132 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Ellington (113 rushing yards on 19 attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Penny Hart (two receptions, 50 yards) and Cornelius McCoy (two catches, 45 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Georgia Southern has run the ball on 84.6 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 82.4 percent across possessions in conference play. Georgia State has an overall rush percentage of 57.5 percent, and has run the ball 59.8 percent of the time when playing SBC opponents. The Eagles have produced 259.5 rush yards per game (including 247.4 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 31 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Panthers are averaging 178.5 rushing yards per game (213.9 in conference) and have 21 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Eagles ought to hold an advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has generated 5.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Panthers have recorded 4.6 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 6.5 to opponents.
The Eagles offense has logged 80.8 yards/game through the air overall (81.3 per game against conference opposition) and has eight passing TDs so far. The Panthers have produced 210.1 pass yards per contest (208 in the SBC) and have 13 total pass scores.
Georgia Southern should have an edge in both areas of the defense. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 148.7 yards and pass for 221.9 yards per game. The Georgia State defense has given up 250.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 248.7 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.33 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers have given up an ugly 9.57 ANY/A.
Offensively, Werts is up to 659 passing yards this season, and has connected on 57 percent of his 75 attempts with six scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 7.73 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.81 over the last two outings.
We’re expecting the Eagles to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Wesley Fields (791 rush yards, eight rush TDs, 96 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Monteo Garrett (449 rush yards, five rush TDs), and Logan Wright (293 rush yards, three rush TDs) have really been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Georgia Southern.
Dan Ellington has completed 154-of-259 passes for 1,949 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs for Georgia State. His ANY/A stands at 6.56 for the season and 2.95 over his past two games.
The Panthers will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Dan Ellington (zero receiving yards), Tra Barnett (469 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Cornelius McCoy (361 receiving yards and one TD) have seen quite a few touches recently.
When these two programs faced each other a year ago, Georgia State earned the win 21-17.
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Georgia State Panthers Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Georgia Southern, ATS Winner: Georgia Southern, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Georgia State offense has lost 12 fumbles this season while Georgia Southern has let five get away.
- The Georgia Southern defensive unit has 23 sacks on the year while Georgia State has just 13.
- As a team, Georgia Southern has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.8 over its last two.
- Georgia State has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.8 over its past two.
- In its last three matches, Georgia State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Georgia Southern’s last game was 53.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-17 victory over Coastal Carolina.
- In its last three matches, Georgia Southern is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Georgia State’s last outing was 55. The over cashed in the 45-17 defeat to Appalachian State.
- Georgia State has lost 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a 32-point victory over Louisiana-Monroe on September 29th accounting for its only win over that span.
