Georgia Bulldogs at LSU Tigers: NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

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It’ll be a SEC-SEC showdown as the No. 1 LSU Tigers (-8) are heavy favorites against the No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. Kickoff for this criticalmatchup is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET and CBS has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: LSU Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

In this Saturday Southeastern game, LSU is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Tigers are -330. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points. Some solid live betting possibilities may present themselves during the game.

The game’s over/under was initially placed at 57, but early action has slanted toward the under.

Each of these teams has posted a good return this year as the Bulldogs have gained 5.0 units and the Tigers are up 6.8 units.

The perfect Bulldogs have gone 11-1 straight up (SU), including 7-1 SU against conference opponents. The Tigers are 12-0 SU overall and 8-0 SU in conference play.

The Dawgs are coming off a resounding 52-7 win over Georgia Tech last week where Jake Fromm completed only 14 passes on 29 attempts for 254 yards and four touchdowns. D’Andre Swift (73 rushing yards on 10 attempts) provided the ground attack while Tyler Simmons (three receptions, 52 yards, one TD) and Demetris Robertson (two catches, 22 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

LSU enters this Saturday’s matchup following a 50-7 win over Texas A&M. Joe Burrow completed 23-of-32 passes for 352 yards and three touchdowns. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (87 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Ja’Marr Chase (seven receptions, 197 yards, two TDs) and Justin Jefferson (six catches, 55 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the win.

Georgia has run the ball on 57.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while LSU has an overall rush percentage of 48.5 percent. The Bulldogs have produced 200 rush yards/game (including 186.5 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 20 scores on the ground this year. The Tigers are logging 170.4 rush yards per game (181.4 in conference) and have 29 total rushing TDs.

If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it appears the Bulldogs could own the advantage when it comes to RB efficiency, as their backfield has produced 5.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 2.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Tigers have recorded 5.0 yards per carry and allowed 3.7 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Dawgs offensive scheme has averaged 220.6 yards in the air overall (187.4 per game against conference opposition) and has 23 passing scores so far. The Tigers have put up an astonishing 390 pass yards per contest (377 against SEC competition) and have 45 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Georgia should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 71.1 rush yards and 186 pass yards per game. The LSU defense has given up 221.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 124.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Dawgs have given up an ANY/A of 4.52 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers are allowing an ANY/A of 5.01.

Burrow likely has the advantage over Fromm in this matchup. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 11.08 for the year and 12.38 across his past two outings while Fromm’s ANY/A is 8.22 and 8.91 over his last two.

These two teams faced off a year ago with the final result being a 36-16 victory for LSU.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers Betting Prediction

SU Winner: LSU, ATS Winner: LSU, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The O/U for Georgia’s previous game was set at 46.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-7 win over Georgia Tech.
  • Georgia, as a team, has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.2 over its last two.
  • LSU has averaged 6.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 7.1 over its past two.
  • The LSU offense has lost five fumbles this season while Georgia has lost seven.
  • In its last three matches, Georgia is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for LSU’s last match was set at 63. The under cashed in the 50-7 victory over Texas A&M.
  • In its last three matchups, LSU is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Bulldogs offense has created nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have accounted for 17 such plays.
  • The Georgia defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while LSU has given up six such plays.
  • The Georgia offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while LSU has created 19 such runs.
  • The Bulldogs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Tigers have given up 13 such runs.
  • The LSU D has notched 30 sacks on the year while Georgia has 25.