It’ll be a SEC-Big 12 showdown as the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs are favorites as they prepare to battle the No. 8 Baylor Bears in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The game will get going at 8:45 p.m. ET and you can watch the action on ESPN.
Betting Preview: Georgia Bulldogs at Baylor Bears
In this Wednesday game, Georgia is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 5 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving -220 moneyline odds while the Bears are +180. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 41.5 points, and if one squad can create a bunch of points in the early stages, it will likely lead to a nice in-game betting opportunity.
The early action has leaned toward the Bears, as the opening line was -9. The game’s total has yet to move after it was set initially at 41.5.
Each of these teams has posted a good return this year as the Bulldogs have gained 4.0 units and the Bears are ahead 7.1 units.
The Bulldogs are 11-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Bears are also 11-2 SU.
The Dawgs came up short to LSU 37-10 in a blowout where the defense allowed the Tigers to pass for 349 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 132 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a good day for the Tigers in that one with 57 rushing yards on 15 attempts, along with 61 yards on seven catches. On the offense, Jake Fromm completed just 20 passes on 42 attempts for 225 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Brian Herrien (24 rushing yards on eight attempts) led the ground attack in the loss. George Pickens (four receptions, 54 yards, one TD) and Demetris Robertson (four catches, 52 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Back on December 7, Oklahoma knocked off this Baylor team by a score of 30-23. The Bears defense allowed the Sooners to rush for 146 yards on 50 attempts, including two rush TDs. CeeDee Lamb had a solid showing, recording 173 yards on eight catches for Oklahoma. As a group, the Bears collectively completed nine-of-27 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns. Gerry Bohanon went four-for-15 for 56 yards and one touchdown while Charlie Brewer was three-of-six for 15 yards. Bohanon (15 rushing yards on nine attempts) handled the ground game in the defeat as Trestan Ebner (two receptions, 84 yards, one TD) and Tyquan Thornton (two catches, 62 yards, one TD) led the Baylor pass-catchers.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each of these squads sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Georgia has run the ball on 55.7 percent of its offensive possessions while Baylor has a rush percentage of 54.7. The Bulldogs have produced 189.3 rush yards/game and have 20 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bears are totaling 174.5 rushing yards per game and have 34 total rush TDs.
Judging by the results so far, it seems like the Bulldogs should hold an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness, since their running backs has produced 5.1 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 2.7 YPC to opponents. The Bears have rushed for 4.8 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 3.7 to opponents.
The Dawgs offensive scheme has averaged 220.9 yards in the air overall and has 24 passing scores so far. The Bears have put up 256.7 pass yards per contest and have 23 total pass TDs.
Georgia seems to hold an advantage in both defensive facets. The team’s let opponents run for an average of 75.8 yards and pass for 198.5 yards per game. The Baylor defense has allowed 215.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.11 to opponents, while the Bulldogs have given up a 5.02 ANY/A.
Offensively, Fromm is up to 2,356 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 200-of-326 attempts with 18 scores through the air and only five interceptions. Fromm’s got a 7.17 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.15 over the last two games.
We’re expecting the Bulldogs to control the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to receiver Tyler Simmons (156 receiving yards), D’Andre Swift (1,143 rush yards, seven rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Brian Herrien (444 rush yards, five rush TDs, 101 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have brought significant production to the offensive scheme for Georgia.
In the other locker room, Jacob Zeno has connected on 2-of-6 passes for 159 yards, one TD and zero INTs. Zeno’s ANY/A stands at 20.38 for the season and 18.55 over his past two outings.
The Bears should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Along with Tyquan Thornton (675 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Trestan Ebner (172 rush yards, two rush TDs, 212 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and JaMycal Hasty (522 rush yards, four rush TDs) have gotten a lot of action lately.
Georgia Bulldogs at Baylor Bears Free Prediction
SU Winner: Georgia, ATS Winner: Georgia, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Bulldogs offense has produced nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bears have accounted for 12 such plays.
- The Georgia defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Baylor has given up three such plays.
- The Georgia offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Baylor has created 25 such runs.
- The Bulldogs defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bears have given up 12 such runs.
- The Baylor defense has sacked opposing QBs 43 times this season. Georgia has registered just 27 sacks.
- Georgia has produced 3.7 yards per carry across its past three outings and 4.3 over its last two.
- Baylor has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.
