The New Mexico Lobos (16-14, 11-6 MWC) and Fresno State Bulldogs (21-9, 11-6 MWC) will battle at Dreamstyle Arena to bring the regular season to an end. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 154.5 points with New Mexico opening as a 1.5-point favorite. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 3, 2018, and it can be seen on ESPN 3.
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos ATS Preview
The last time the Bulldogs played, they beat the Air Force Falcons, 54-48. Bryson Williams was the top scorer from either team with 15 points on 6-for-15 shooting. Fresno State played a nearly perfect game. They had a turnover percentage of 18.1 (worse than their season average of 15.1) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.366 (below their season average of 0.561). Air Force put up marks of 23.5 and 0.327, respectively, for those same stats.
The Lobos hope to maintain momentum after blowing out the Colorado State Rams in their last contest, 108-87. With 22 points on 6-for-7 shooting, Joe Furstinger was New Mexico’s high scorer. New Mexico dominated every stat category in the game. They had a ridiculous offensive rebounding percentage of 38.5 (above their season average of 26.1) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.689 (above their season average of 0.537). Colorado State was 28.9 and 0.540, respectively, for those same stats.
This matchup figures to be a shootout as two of the NCAA’s top offenses square off. New Mexico ranks 57th with 112.1 points per 100 possessions and Fresno State is 43rd (113.0). ,
Of Fresno State’s 26 games with betting action, 13 have finished over the projected point total, while 14 of New Mexico’s 27 games have finished over the O/U total. The Bulldogs have the better straight up (SU) record (21-9 vs. 16-14), but the Lobos hold the sizable advantage against the spread (ATS) (15-13 vs. 12-13-1).
Makuach Maluach has been impressive over the last five games for New Mexico, averaging 16.0 points per game.
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined for 169 points in that game, which was well over the projected point total of 145.5. The Bulldogs won 89-80, but were unable to cover as 10-point favorites. The Bulldogs played a nearly perfect game. They had an absurd effective field goal percentage of 0.745 and a fantastic free throw rate of 0.327. For those same stats, the Lobos had marks of 0.593 and 0.296, respectively. In the victory, Deshon Taylor led all scorers with 22 points.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico Lobos Betting Prediction
Free Pick: SU Winner – Fresno State, ATS Winner – Fresno State, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Bulldogs rank 24th in steals allowed per game (5.0) while the Lobos rank 104th (6.0).
- Fresno State is 7-5-1 ATS on the road, while New Mexico is 9-5 ATS at home.
- In 13 road games, the Bulldogs have 8 overs and 5 unders.
- The Lobos have 7 unders and 6 overs in 14 home games.
- New Mexico ranks fifth in three pointers attempted per game (29.8) while Fresno State ranks 289th (17.2).
- The Bulldogs rank 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (31.1) while the Lobos rank 223rd (36.7).
- New Mexico ranks 40th in assists per game (16.0) while Fresno State ranks 155th (13.4).
Betting Trends:
- New Mexico is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games. ,
- Over their last five games, Fresno State is 3-1-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Lobos average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.8, up from 4.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 72.4 points per game (5.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 62.4 points per game (5.7 below their season average).
