Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: NCAA Football Free Pick

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The Fresno State Bulldogs and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will go toe-to-toe on the turf at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium. Kickoff for this MWC showdown is set for 12:00 a.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to FCBK. When the two schools met a year ago, Fresno State knocked off Hawaii handily 50-20.

Betting Preview: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

The Bulldogs approach this Saturday MWC game as the underdog and are currently being given 3 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Rainbow Warriors are -140. If one team can create a bunch of points early on it’ll create a solid live betting opportunity. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 69.5 points.

The line opened at -3 while the over/under hasn’t moved since it was set initially at 69.5.

The less-than-stellar Bulldogs are down 8.0 units so far in 2019 and 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 5-2.

The Rainbow Warriors have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 5.1 units. They’re 4-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-3.

The Bulldogs are 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against MWC opponents. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-3 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.

The Bulldogs dropped one to Colorado State 41-31 in a game where the passing game could’ve been sharper as Jorge Reyna completed only 20 passes on 37 attempts for 200 yards and two interceptions. Ronnie Rivers (146 yards on 14 rush attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the running attack. Rivers (four receptions, 42 yards) and Emoryie Edwards (four catches, 34 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors enter this one following a 45-31 win over New Mexico. The defensive unit let the Lobos run for 207 yards on 31 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Ahmari Davis was outstanding, putting up 200 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts for the Lobos. As a group, the Rainbow Warriors collectively completed 21-of-40 passes for 323 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Cole McDonald went 17-for-30 for 237 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Chevan Cordeiro was four-of-eight for 86 yards and one touchdown. Miles Reed (97 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller McDonald (140 yards on nine carries, two TDs) spearheaded the running attack as Cedric Byrd II (six receptions, 58 yards) and Jason-Matthew Sharsh (four catches, 39 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Fresno State’s run the ball on 49 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Hawaii has an overall rush percentage of 37.3 percent. The Bulldogs have rushed for 164.9 yards per game (including 169 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 17 scores on the ground this year. The Rainbow Warriors are logging 133.6 rushing yards per game (147.3 in conference) and have eight total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then the Bulldogs may have the edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their running backs has logged 5.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.0 YPC to opponents. The Rainbow Warriors have registered 5.0 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 5.7 to opponents.

The Bulldogs offense has logged 236.4 yards/contest through the air overall (212.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Rainbow Warriors have put up a ridiculous 354.5 pass yards per contest (356 in the MWC) and have 28 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Fresno State has allowed 159 rush yards and 229.9 pass yards per game. The Hawaii D has given up 232.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 204.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.80 to opponents, while the Rainbow Warriors have allowed a 6.59 ANY/A.

Offensively, Reyna has amassed 1,426 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 62 percent of his 210 attempts with nine scores through the air and six interceptions. Reyna has a 5.58 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

In the home locker room, Cole McDonald has managed to complete 171-of-261 passes for 2,117 yards, 21 TDs and 10 INTs. McDonald’s ANY/A stands at 7.64 for the season and 7.13 over his last two games.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors NCAA Tip

SU Winner: Hawaii, ATS Winner: Hawaii, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • Hawaii has lost 10 fumbles this season while Fresno State has let five get away.
  • The Hawaii defense has sacked opposing QBs 11 times this season. Fresno State has recorded 10 sacks.
  • As a team, Fresno State has averaged 6.3 yards per carry over its past three games and 6.8 over its last two.
  • Hawaii has averaged 6.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.2 over its last two.
  • In its last three contests, Hawaii is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Fresno State’s last game was set at 57. The over cashed in the team’s 41-31 loss to Colorado State.
  • Over its last three matchups, Fresno State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Hawaii’s last match going into it was 71. The over cashed in the 45-31 victory over New Mexico.