MWC foes will collide when the Air Force Falcons (11-16, 5-10 MWC) meet the Fresno State Bulldogs (20-9, 10-6 MWC) at Clune Arena. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 140.5 points with Fresno State opening as an 8-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 26, 2018.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Air Force Falcons ATS Preview
The Bulldogs fell to the Wyoming Cowboys in their last game, 78-68. Fresno State’s Jahmel Taylor finished with 16 points and eight rebounds in the game. Wyoming did a fantastic job of converting from the free throw line (19-25; 76.0 percent). Fresno State, meanwhile, held the Cowboys to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.7 (below their season average of 19.4).
In the Falcons’ last game, they topped the Utah State Aggies, 75-65. With 18 points on 6-for-10 shooting, Lavelle Scottie was the game’s leading scorer. Air Force dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.333 (above their season average of 0.239) and a turnover percentage of 16.1 (better than their season average of 16.2). Utah State was 0.193 and 20.6, respectively, for those same stats.
Air Force might have difficulty putting up points as they clash against one of the nation’s best defenses. Fresno State ranks 99th in defensive efficiency while the Falcons rank 244th in offensive efficiency.
Of Fresno State’s 25 games with betting action, 13 have finished over the projected point total, while 12 of Air Force’s 22 games have finished under the projected point total. The Bulldogs have the better straight up (SU) record (20-9 vs. 11-16), but the Falcons hold the sizable advantage against the spread (ATS) (14-8 vs. 12-13).
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 130 points, which was under the projected point total of 137. The Bulldogs won 71-59, but were unable to cover as 16-point favorites. The Bulldogs’ 36.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Falcons, who had a rate of 19.4. Deshon Taylor scored a game-high 18 points.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Air Force Falcons Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Fresno State, ATS Winner – Fresno State, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Bulldogs allow the 15th-fewest steals per game (4.9) while the Falcons rank 57th (5.5).
- Air Force is 8-2 ATS at home, while Fresno State is 7-5 ATS on the road.
- The Bulldogs have 8 overs and 4 unders in 12 road games.
- In 10 home games, the Falcons have 6 overs and 4 unders.
- Fresno State ranks 25th in three pointers allowed per game (18.8) while Air Force ranks 231st (23.9).
- The Bulldogs rank 21st in rebounds allowed per game (30.8) while the Falcons rank 121st (34.1).
- Fresno State ranks 143rd in assists per game (13.6) while Air Force ranks 197th in assists allowed per game (14.4).
Bettings Trends:
- Air Force is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Fresno State is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Falcons’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.0, up from 4.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 77.4 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.0 points per game (3.8 below their season average).
