Week 8 Free Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) are traveling north to visit the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. This crucial early afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.

Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is a live dog here and is currently getting 6 points. The Buccaneers are also receiving +180 moneyline odds while the Bengals are -220. This matchup should provide several decent live betting scenarios, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 54 points.

The game’s total has moved upward after originally being set at 53.5. The opening line of -6 hasn’t budged.

The Buccaneers are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.4 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 5-1.

The Bengals are up 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-3.

The Buccaneers have gone 3-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bengals are 4-3 SU.

The Buccaneers just got a 26-23 win over Cleveland in Week 7. The Bucs defense allowed the Browns to rush for 119 yards on 23 attempts, along with one rushing TD. On the offensive side of the ball, Jameis Winston completed 32-of-52 passes for 365 yards and two interceptions. Peyton Barber (30 rushing yards on 11 attempts) and the signal-caller Winston (55 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the running attack. Mike Evans (seven receptions, 107 yards) and Chris Godwin (five catches, 59 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Cincinnati just dropped a brutal 45-10 game to Kansas City in Week 7. Andy Dalton completed 15-of-29 passes for 148 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Joe Mixon (50 rushing yards on 13 attempts) handled the running game as A.J. Green (seven receptions, 117 yards) and Cody Core (three catches, 30 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

When glancing at offensive play-calling, each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Tampa Bay has run the ball on 37.1 percent of its offensive possessions while Cincinnati has an overall rush percentage of 35.1. The Buccaneers have rushed for 85.5 yards per game and have four scores on the ground this year. The Bengals are putting up 86.3 rushing yards per game and have five total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then the Bengals could hold an edge in the trenches, as their offensive line has given up only 14 sacks while their D-line has registered 15 sacks. The Buccaneers O-line has allowed 15 sacks and their defense has forced only 14 sacks.

The Bucs offense has averaged a ridiculous 376.8 yards through the air overall and has 16 passing scores so far. The Bengals have put up 265.9 pass yards per game and have 15 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Tampa Bay has allowed opponents to run for an average of 90.0 yards and pass for 341.7 yards per game. The Cincinnati defense has allowed 310.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 128.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bengals are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.98 to opposing QBs, while the Buccaneers have given up a staggering 9.27 ANY/A.

Offensively, Winston has put up 510 passing yards this season. The signal-caller has connected on 67 percent of his 72 attempts with one scores through the air and four interceptions. He has a 4.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 6.37 over the past two games.

In the home locker room, Andy Dalton has managed to complete 138-of-216 passes for 1,593 yards, 13 TDs and eight INTs. Dalton’s ANY/A sits at 6.15 for the season and 4.78 across his last two outings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Buccaneers, ATS Winner: Buccaneers, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes,

  • As a team, Tampa Bay has averaged 4.2 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.5 over its last two.
  • Cincinnati has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.0 over its past two.
  • The Cincinnati offense has lost one fumble this season while Tampa Bay has lost four.
  • The Buccaneers offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bengals have accounted for one such play.
  • The Tampa Bay defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Cincinnati has given up five such plays.
  • The Tampa Bay offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Cincinnati has created six such runs.
  • The Buccaneers defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bengals have given up seven such runs.
  • The Cincinnati defensive unit has registered 15 sacks on the year while Tampa Bay has 14.