Week 8 Free Pick – Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

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Two offenses that prefer to pass the ball, the Raiders (+2) are gearing up to meet the Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Oakland Coliseum. Fans can catch the action live on CBS and kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

Oakland is entering this AFC game as the underdog and is currently being given 2 points. The Colts are also receiving -130 moneyline odds while the Raiders are +110. If one team finds paydirt early it’ll generate a worthy in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points.

Odds have shifted a hair from where they first opened. The line opened at 1 while the game’s O/U was placed originally at 51.

The Colts are 3-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 2.3 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-3.

The Raiders have lost 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-4.

The Colts are 2-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Raiders are 1-5 SU.

The Colts want to make it two in a row 37-5 win over Buffalo last week. Andrew Luck completed 17 passes on 23 attempts for just 156 yards and four touchdowns. Marlon Mack (126 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) provided the ground attack while Chester Rogers (four receptions, 40 yards) and T.Y. Hilton (four catches, 25 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Oakland just fell 27-3 to Seattle. The team’s defense allowed the Seahawks to eat up the clock by running for 155 yards on 37 rush attempts. Doug Baldwin had a solid showing in the win, recording 91 yards on six catches for Seattle. For Oakland, Derek Carr completed 23-of-31 passes for 142 yards. Marshawn Lynch (45 yards on 13 rush attempts) led the running game while Jalen Richard (seven receptions, 48 yards) and Seth Roberts (five catches, 31 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Indianapolis has run the ball on 34.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Oakland has an overall rush percentage of 38.0 percent. The Colts have produced 102.7 rush yards per game and have two scores on the ground this year. The Raiders are averaging 92.5 rush yards per game and have three total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Colts should own an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their running backs has generated 4.5 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Raiders have recorded 3.9 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.7 to opponents.

The Colts offense has averaged 278.3 yards through the air overall and has 20 passing scores so far. The Raiders have recorded 297.2 pass yards per game and have seven total pass TDs.

Defensively, Indianapolis has allowed opponents to run for an average of 110.9 yards and pass for 280.1 yards per game. The Oakland D has allowed 275.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 131.8 yards per game on the ground. The Colts are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.89 to opposing QBs, while the Raiders have allowed an ugly 8.84 ANY/A.

Offensively, Luck is up to 1,647 passing yards this year. He’s completed 67 percent of his 268 attempts with 16 scores through the air and only five interceptions. Luck has a 5.99 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.30 over the last two outings.

In the other locker room, Derek Carr has connected on 143-of-200 passes for 1,515 yards, six TDs and seven INTs. Carr’s ANY/A stands at 5.81 for the season and 4.51 across his last two games.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Colts, ATS Winner: Raiders, O/U: Under

Betting Notes,

  • The Indianapolis defensive unit has three times as many sacks as Oakland this year (21 versus seven).
  • Oakland has lost three fumbles in 2018 while Indianapolis has lost five.
  • The Colts offense has recorded two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Raiders have put up four such plays.
  • The Indianapolis defense has allowed zero pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Oakland has given up seven such plays.
  • The Indianapolis offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Oakland has created one such runs.
  • The Colts defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Raiders have given up five such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Oakland’s last outing was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-3 loss to Seattle.
  • Over its last three matches, Oakland is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three games, Indianapolis is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Indianapolis’ last game was set at 43.5. The under cashed in the team’s 37-5 victory over Buffalo.
  • Indianapolis, as a team, has rushed for 5.3 yards per attempt across its past three contests and 5.8 over its last two.
  • Oakland has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its last two.