In a battle featuring two schools that prefer to run the football, Coach Troy Calhoun and the Air Force Falcons (-13) are set to take on the UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium. This conference matchup will get going at 10:00 p.m. ET and spectators can witness the action live on CBS Sports Network. These teams faced off a year ago with the final result being a 34-30 win for Air Force.
Betting Preview: Air Force Falcons at UNLV Rebels
UNLV is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 13 points in this Friday MWC game. The Falcons are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Rebels are +375. If one school can create a bunch of points early it’ll create a nice in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 55.5 points.
The game’s total has moved up after originally being set at 54.5. The opening spread of 13 has yet to change.
The Falcons are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 2.8 units so far. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 2-3.
The Rebels are down 4.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-3 ATS and four of their games have gone over the total.
The Falcons are 2-4 straight up (SU), including 0-3 SU against conference opponents. The Rebels are 2-4 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.
The Falcons look to bounce back after a 21-17 loss to San Diego State last week. The passing attack wasn’t where it needed to be as Isaiah Sanders completed just seven-of-15 passes for 51 yards and one interception. Sanders (49 rushing yards on 15 attempts) also led the ground attack. Cleveland (two receptions, three yards) and Kade Waguespack (two catches, 31 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Utah State knocked off this UNLV crew by a score of 59-28. The Rebels defense allowed the Aggies to pass for 377 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 221 yards and two scores. Jalen Greene had a solid showing in the win, posting 132 yards on five catches for Utah State. For UNLV, Max Gilliam completed 18-of-36 passes for 250 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Lexington Thomas (51 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) and Charles Williams (21 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running game as Darren Woods Jr. (five receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Tyleek Collins (four catches, 139 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Air Force has run the ball on 81.0 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 76.7 percent across possessions in conference play. UNLV has a rush percentage of 65.1 percent, and has run the ball 51.4 percent of the time when playing MWC opponents. The Falcons have run for 248.3 yards/game (including 230.3 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 16 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Rebels are averaging 257.2 rush yards per game (98.5 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results are any indication, then it appears the Falcons ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded only 22 sacks while the D-line registered 10 sacks. The Rebels, on the other hand, have given up 24 sacks and their defense has created only 11 sacks.
The Falcons offensive scheme has logged 106.8 yards/contest through the air overall (102.0 per game against conference opposition) and has three passing TDs so far. The Rebels have produced 123.7 pass yards per outing (187 against MWC foes) and have 11 total pass scores.
Defensively, Air Force has allowed opponents to run for an average of 101.2 yards and throw for 232.2 yards per game. The UNLV D has given up 244.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 199.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Falcons are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.13 to opponents, while the Rebels have allowed a staggering 8.82 ANY/A.
Offensively, Hammond III is up to 82 passing yards this season. He’s completed 44 percent of his 16 attempts with one scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Hammond III’s got a 6.38 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 15.73 over the past two outings.
Max Gilliam has completed 19-of-37 passes for 250 yards, three TDs and one INT for UNLV. His ANY/A stands at a mediocre 4.80 for the season and 3.55 across his past two outings.
Air Force Falcons at UNLV Rebels NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Air Force, ATS Winner: Air Force, O/U: Under
