The NFC South has long stood as one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions, and on Sunday, September 7, 2025, the spotlight turns to Raymond James Stadium as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons in a highly anticipated matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET, with Tampa Bay entering as a slight favorite at -1.5 on the early betting lines.
This game not only opens division play for both teams but also provides an early litmus test for two franchises with playoff aspirations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A Team in Transition but Still Dangerous
The Buccaneers enter 2025 with cautious optimism after riding a wave of volatility over the past two seasons. Post-Tom Brady, the franchise has worked tirelessly to establish a new identity, centering around a balanced offensive approach and a defense that remains one of the most aggressive in the league.
In 2024, Tampa Bay finished 9-8, narrowly missing out on the postseason in a year when the NFC South remained tightly contested until the final weeks. The Bucs’ success this season will lean heavily on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who signed a lucrative extension after proving he could rejuvenate his career in Tampa. Last season, Mayfield threw for over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns, establishing steady chemistry with star wideout Mike Evans, who continues to play at an All-Pro level despite being in his early 30s.
Tampa Bay’s defense remains its anchor. Linebacker Lavonte David, even in his mid-30s, remains a steadying veteran presence, while 2020 first-round selection Antoine Winfield Jr. has blossomed into one of the NFL’s premier safeties. Defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers has emphasized turnovers and pressure, with outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka expected to step into a more prominent role as a pass rusher in 2025.
Atlanta Falcons: Searching for Consistency in Year Two of Their Rebuild
For the Falcons, 2025 represents a critical juncture in their commitment to head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot’s long-term plan. Atlanta finished 8-9 last season, their third consecutive losing campaign, but optimism brews around a young offensive core led by quarterback Kirk Cousins, who signed with the Falcons in 2024 to bring stability under center.
Cousins, who missed time in 2023 due to injury while in Minnesota, bounced back with an efficient 2024 campaign, throwing for 3,600 yards and 22 touchdowns. Surrounded by dynamic young weapons—including running back Bijan Robinson, who surpassed 1,200 rushing yards last year—Atlanta’s offense is poised to be more explosive this season.
Robinson, entering his third year, has quickly established himself as one of the most versatile backs in the NFL, capable of impacting the game both as a runner and receiver. Wide receiver Drake London, the 2022 first-round pick, has developed as a reliable target, while tight end Kyle Pitts continues to search for consistent production after managing 56 receptions and 667 yards a season ago.
Defensively, the Falcons invested heavily in their secondary, highlighted by A.J. Terrell, who has emerged as a top-tier cornerback. Atlanta’s front seven will look to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks, an area that has held them back in high-profile games.
Recent Performances and Head-to-Head Trends
This Week 1 clash comes with both teams eager to set the tone in what has perennially been a wide-open NFC South. Historically, meetings between these two franchises have been competitive, with Tampa Bay holding a slight edge in head-to-head wins over the past five seasons.
In 2024, the teams split their two encounters. Tampa Bay secured a decisive 27-16 victory in the season’s first meeting, with Evans dominating Atlanta’s secondary, while the Falcons responded late in the season with a narrow 23-20 win in Mercedes-Benz Stadium fueled by Robinson’s two-touchdown performance.
Both clubs were inconsistent down the stretch last year—Tampa dropping three of its last four games, and Atlanta losing four of its last six—as each missed out on postseason contention. That makes Sunday night’s battle not just a divisional game, but a confidence-builder for two teams trying to reverse recent late-season collapses.
What to Watch For
Quarterback Battle – While Cousins brings steady veteran play to Atlanta, Mayfield’s fiery competitiveness and ability to extend plays with his legs could be the X-factor for Tampa Bay. Both signal-callers are operating behind offensive lines that showed mixed results in 2024. Protecting the pocket will be crucial.
Star Power at Skill Positions – Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the league’s most reliable receiver duos, while Robinson’s dual-threat ability makes him the most dangerous player on the field. Whichever team maximizes its playmakers may control the tempo.
Defensive Matchups – The matchup between Robinson and Tampa Bay’s stout run defense—anchored by Vita Vea—will be pivotal. If the Bucs bottle up Atlanta’s ground game, Cousins may be forced into high-pressure passing downs where Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy schemes thrive.
Prediction
Oddsmakers list the Buccaneers as 1.5-point favorites, signaling how evenly matched these rivals appear on paper. Tampa Bay’s home-field advantage, coupled with its defensive edge, could prove decisive. Expect the Falcons to lean heavily on Robinson early, testing whether the Buccaneers can limit explosive runs.
Ultimately, Tampa Bay’s experience and defensive consistency may give them the upper hand in a close contest.
Projected Final Score: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20
Around the NFL: Upcoming Games of Note
This prime-time NFC South battle rounds out a thrilling first weekend of NFL action, which includes marquee matchups across the league:
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles on Sep 5, 2025 at 3:20 AM (Eagles -8.5)
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers on Sep 6, 2025 at 3:00 AM (Chiefs -3.5)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns on Sep 7, 2025 at 8:00 PM (Bengals -5.5)
Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts on Sep 7, 2025 at 8:00 PM (Colts -1.5)
With tight spreads across the majority of these games, Week 1 promises fireworks, but all eyes in the NFC South will be firmly fixed on Tampa Bay as the Buccaneers and Falcons renew their rivalry under the lights.
