Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels Free Betting Pick

Victor TrejosCollege Football, Football

The No. 22 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-10) are set to take on their conference rival Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field. The game is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET and ESPN will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels

In this Thursday Southeastern matchup, Mississippi State is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 10 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to wager $400 to win $100 back on the Bulldogs (-400). The Rebels are getting +300 moneyline odds. If one school can create a bunch of points in the early stages it’ll generate a solid in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 58. With the spread currently sitting at Ole Miss +10, oddsmakers are thinking this could be a 24-34 victory for the Bulldogs.

The line initially opened at 8.5 while the total was originally 58.5, so it appears that the sharp action is siding with the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs are 7-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 4.7 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 2-8.

The Rebels have lost 3.3 units this season. The team is 3-8 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-5.

The Bulldogs have gone 7-4 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against conference opponents. The Rebels are 5-6 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.

The Bulldogs hope to make it two in a row 52-6 win over Arkansas last week. Nick Fitzgerald completed nine passes for just 127 yards and four touchdowns. Aeris Williams (104 yards on 15 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Fitzgerald (85 yards on 14 carries, one TD) led the running attack. Justin Johnson (three receptions, 59 yards, one TD) and Williams (two catches, 52 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Ole Miss just dropped a 36-29 game to Vanderbilt. Jordan Ta’amu completed 32-of-52 passes for 457 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Isaiah Woullard (107 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and the signal-caller Ta’amu (10 yards on 10 carries) led the running game while A.J. Brown (nine receptions, 212 yards, one TD) and DaMarkus Lodge (nine catches, 117 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Mississippi State’s run the ball on 60.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Ole Miss has a rush percentage of 48.4 percent. The Bulldogs have produced 218.9 rush yards/game (including 169.1 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 21 scores on the ground this year. The Rebels are totaling 175.6 rushing yards per game (148.1 in conference) and have 24 total rush TDs.

If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Bulldogs should hold an advantage when it comes to RB efficiency. Their backfield has generated 5.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.2 to opponents. The Rebels have tallied 5.0 yards per carry and given up 5.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Bulldogs offensive scheme has logged 181.5 yards/contest through the air overall (132.1 per game against conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Rebels have produced a superb 364.1 pass yards per outing (319 against SEC competition) and have 21 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Mississippi State appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 110.4 rush yards and 165.3 pass yards per game. The Ole Miss defense has allowed 275.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 213.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.24 to opposing QBs, while the Rebels have given up a 7.76 ANY/A.

Offensively, Fitzgerald is up to 1,379 passing yards this season. He’s completed 52 percent of his 211 attempts with 14 passing scores and seven interceptions. He has a 5.30 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.62 over the past two outings.

We expect the Mississippi State offense to mix it up in this one. Aeris Williams (410 rushing yards, two rush TDs, 58 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), Justin Johnson (219 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Nick Fitzgerald (924 rush yards, 10 rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) have each played big roles recently.

In the hosts’ locker room, Jordan Ta’amu has completed 236-of-366 passes for 3,458 yards, 18 TDs and seven INTs. Ta’amu’s ANY/A stands at 8.64 for the year and 8.10 over his past two outings.

A.J. Brown (1,132 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns this season), DaMarkus Lodge (701 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Isaiah Woullard (301 rush yards, four rush TDs) have combined to account for 773 total yards and three touchdowns the past couple of games.

When these two schools met a year ago, Ole Miss won by a field goal 31-28.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Ole Miss, ATS Winner: Ole Miss, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Bulldogs offense has produced four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Rebels have put up 22 such plays.
  • The Mississippi State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Ole Miss has given up eight such plays.
  • Both teams have produced 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Mississippi State offense has recorded 74 running plays of 10+ yards while Ole Miss has accounted for 63 such plays.
  • The Bulldogs defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Rebels have given up 17 such runs.
  • The Mississippi State defense has 32 sacks on the year while Ole Miss has just 21.
  • Mississippi State has rushed for 5.5 yards per attempt over its past three games and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Ole Miss has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.1 over its last two.
  • In its last three matchups, Ole Miss is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Mississippi State’s last game was 48.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-6 victory over Arkansas.
  • Over its last three contests, Mississippi State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Ole Miss’ last outing was set at 73. The under cashed in the 36-29 loss to Vanderbilt.
  • Mississippi State has won four of its last five games SU, with a 24-point loss to Alabama on November 10th representing the only defeat over that span.