Colorado State Rams vs. Air Force Falcons Free Betting Pick

Victor TrejosCollege Football, Football

The Colorado State Rams (+14) aren’t traveling far to face their conference nemesis Air Force Falcons at Falcon Stadium. This afternoon game will get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and spectators can catch the action live on CBS Sports Network.

Betting Preview: Air Force Falcons vs. Colorado State Rams

In this Thursday Mountain West game, Air Force is tabbed as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 14 points. The Rams are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Falcons are -735. This MWC matchup should provide several decent in-game betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 58.5 points.

The game’s total has shifted higher after originally being set at 57.5. The opening line has remained firm.

The disappointing Rams are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and are down 11.8 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 4-7.

The Falcons have lost 3.8 units this season. The team is 6-4-1 ATS and six of its games have gone over the total.

The Rams are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against MWC opponents. The Falcons are 4-7 SU overall and are also 2-5 SU in conference play.

The Rams lost to Utah State 29-24 in a contest where their defense allowed the Aggies to run for 141 yards on 28 rush attempts. On the offensive side, Collin Hill completed 24-of-37 passes for 296 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Izzy Matthews (100 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Olabisi Johnson (seven receptions, 107 yards) and Preston Williams (six catches, 77 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, Wyoming knocked off this Air Force team by a score of 35-27. Donald Hammond III completed five-of-nine passes for 53 yards and two interceptions. Kadin Remsberg (128 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and the signal-caller Hammond III (90 yards on 18 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the running attack while Marcus Bennett (three receptions, 31 yards) and Joseph Saucier (one catch, eight yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Colorado State has run the ball on 43.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Air Force has an overall rush percentage of 81.0 percent. The Rams have rushed for 109.4 yards/game (including 122.3 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are totaling 273.7 rushing yards per game (298.1 in conference) and have 31 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Falcons might hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has produced 4.7 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.5 YPC to opponents. The Rams have recorded 3.3 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.2 to opponents.

The Rams offensive scheme has logged 298.7 yards/game in the air overall (317.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 23 passing scores so far. The Falcons have produced 135.9 pass yards per game (138 in the MWC) and have nine total pass TDs.

Defensively, Colorado State has let opponents run for an average of 203.7 yards and throw for 245.7 yards per game. The Air Force defense has allowed 232.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Falcons are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.37 to opposing QBs, while the Rams have given up a staggering 9.47 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Hill has put up 917 yards on the year, and has completed 60 percent of his 139 attempts with four passing scores and five interceptions. Hill’s got a 5.01 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.44 over the last two outings.

Izzy Matthews, Preston Williams and Olabisi Johnson have collectively accounted for 433 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

For the home team, Donald Hammond III has managed to complete 25-of-50 passes for 397 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Hammond III’s ANY/A sits at 6.94 for the season and 9.87 over his past two games.

Similar to the Rams, expect a balanced attack offensively from Air Force this Thursday. Kadin Remsberg, Donald Hammond III and Marcus Bennett have collectively accounted for 538 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns the last couple of outings.

When these two teams faced each other a year ago, Air Force earned the win 45-28.

Colorado State Rams vs. Air Force Falcons Free NCAA Betting Tip

SU Winner: Colorado State, ATS Winner: Colorado State, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Air Force offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Colorado State has lost six.
  • The Air Force D has created 17 sacks on the year while Colorado State has 15.
  • Colorado State, as a team, has rushed for 3.0 yards per attempt across its past three games and 3.5 over its last two.
  • Air Force has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.4 over its last two.
  • Over its last three games, Air Force is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Colorado State’s last game was set at 66.5. The under cashed in the team’s 29-24 defeat to Utah State.
  • Over its last three games, Colorado State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Air Force’s last matchup was set at 43. The over cashed in the team’s 35-27 defeat to Wyoming.