East Carolina Pirates vs. Tulane Green Wave: NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

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The East Carolina Pirates (+14) are heading southwest to face their conference nemesis Tulane Green Wave at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium. ESNN has the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: East Carolina Pirates vs. Tulane Green Wave

In this Saturday American Athletic Conference game, Tulane is getting picked as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 14 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to lay down $600 to win $100 back on the Green Wave (-600). The Pirates are getting +425 moneyline odds. There will probably be some decent live betting opportunities for this showdown, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.

Early action has moved to the Pirates, as the opening line was -15. The total has not changed after it was initially set at 55.5.

The Pirates are 2-6 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.0 units so far. The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 4-4.

The Green Wave are up 1.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-7.

The Pirates have gone 2-6 straight up (SU), including 0-5 SU against conference opponents. The Green Wave are 4-5 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play.

Tulane comes into this one on a four-game losing streak while East Carolina has won its last two in a row. The Pirates are most-recently reeling from a 59-41 defeat to Memphis last week. Holton Ahlers completed only 34 passes on 62 attempts for 449 yards and three touchdowns. Ahlers (57 rushing yards on 17 attempts) also mounted the running attack. Trevon Brown (10 receptions, 193 yards, two TDs) and Deondre Farrier (six catches, 76 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Tulane just earned a 41-15 win over South Florida. Justin McMillan completed four-of-11 passes for 61 yards. Corey Dauphine (121 yards on 17 rush attempts, two TDs) and Darius Bradwell (135 yards on 15 carries, one TD) handled the running game while Terren Encalade (two receptions, 15 yards) and Darnell Mooney (one catch, 39 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

East Carolina has run the ball on 41.0 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 38.9 percent across possessions in conference play. Tulane has an overall rush percentage of 67.2 percent, and has carried the ball 70.0 percent of the time when facing AAC opponents. The Pirates have run for 117.1 yards/game (including 94.0 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Green Wave are logging 221.7 rushing yards per game (259.4 in conference) and have 22 total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then the Green Wave ought to hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has logged 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Pirates have tallied 3.3 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.1 to opponents.

The Pirates offense has tallied 315.3 yards per game through the air overall (321.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Green Wave have put up 158.1 pass yards per game (123 against AAC foes) and have eight total pass scores.

East Carolina should have an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 162.8 yards and pass for 233.9 yards per game. The Tulane defense has allowed 269.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 148.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Green Wave are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.52 to opposing QBs, while the Pirates have given up a 7.39 ANY/A.

Offensively, Ahlers is up to 593 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 47-of-90 attempts with four passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 6.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.14 over the last two games.

Expect Ahlers to attack all areas of the Tulane secondary. Trevon Brown (0 receiving yards and five touchdowns), Deondre Farrier (263 yards, two TDs) and Holton Ahlers (0 yards) have all been heavily involved recently.

Justin McMillan has connected on 18-of-40 passes for 257 yards, three TDs and zero INTs for Tulane. His ANY/A sits at 6.09 for the season and 4.74 over his last two games.

We expect the Green Wave to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Justin McMillan (zero receiving yards) has contributed lately, but Corey Dauphine (535 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Darius Bradwell (676 rush yards, seven rush TDs) have been key factors in the Tulane offense.

When these two squads met a year ago, Tulane won by a touchdown 31-24.

East Carolina Pirates at Tulane Green Wave Betting Pick

SU Winner: East Carolina, ATS Winner: East Carolina, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The East Carolina defense has 26 sacks on the year while Tulane has 25.
  • The Tulane offense has lost nine fumbles this season while the East Carolina offense has lost seven.
  • The Pirates offense has tallied four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Green Wave have put up five such plays.
  • The East Carolina defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Tulane has given up five such plays.
  • The East Carolina offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Tulane has created 27 such runs.
  • The Pirates defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Green Wave have given up eight such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Tulane’s last game was set at 60.5. The under cashed in that 41-15 win over South Florida.
  • Over its last three contests, Tulane is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • Over its last three matchups, East Carolina is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • East Carolina has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a two-point win over Old Dominion on September 29th representing the only victory over that stretch.
  • The Over/Under for East Carolina’s last game was set at 67. The over cashed in the team’s 59-41 loss to Memphis.
  • As a team, East Carolina has averaged 2.4 yards per carry over its past three contests and 2.9 over its last two.
  • Tulane has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.3 over its past two.