AAC foes will collide when the SMU Mustangs (14-7, 4-4 AAC) meet the East Carolina Pirates (8-11, 2-6 AAC) at Moody Coliseum. SMU opened as a 21-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 132 points. Tip-off is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 28, 2018, and it can be seen on CBS Sports Network.
East Carolina Pirates at SMU Mustangs Odds Preview
The last time the Pirates played, they lost big to the No. 12 Cincinnati Bearcats, 86-60. East Carolina’s Kentrell Barkley had a good game, recording 10 points and eight rebounds. Cincinnati’s 7.8 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over East Carolina, who had a rate of 19.0. The Bearcats mark was better than their season average of 15.5.
The Mustangs are trying to rebound after their 63-52 loss to the Connecticut Huskies in their last contest. Shake Milton was SMU’s leading scorer with 18 points on 5-for-16 shooting. Connecticut held the Mustangs to an effective field goal percentage of 0.342 (below their season average of 0.550). SMU, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (34.1 vs. 30.3).
SMU could own the offensive glass in this contest. The Mustangs currently rank 58th in offensive rebounding percentage (33.8 percent), while East Carolina ranks 307th in defensive rebounding percentage (67.7 percent). Additionally, the Pirates 335th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 94.4) will face a difficult test against the Mustangs 40th-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 96.1).
In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. East Carolina games have finished over 58.3 percent of the time, while 56.3 percent of games featuring SMU have gone under. The Mustangs have the better straight up (SU) record (14-7 vs. 8-11) and a slight edge against the spread (ATS) (7-9 vs. 6-6).
This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Mustangs won all three contests played against each other last season. In the most recent contest, SMU won 81-77. SMU did a great job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (21-29; 72.4 percent). East Carolina, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 20.8).
East Carolina Pirates vs. SMU Mustangs Free Prediction
Free Basketball Pick: SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – East Carolina, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mustangs rank 166th in three pointers attempted per game (21.3) while the Pirates rank 243rd (18.2).
- East Carolina averages 3.8 blocks per game, which ranks 85th in the nation. SMU ranks 100th in blocks allowed per game (3.4).
- East Carolina is 3-2 ATS on the road, while SMU is 5-3 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Pirates 5 road games, while 5 of the Mustangs 8 home games have gone under.
- SMU ranks 43rd in assists per game (16.1) while East Carolina ranks 218th (12.3).
- The Mustangs rank 41st in rebounds allowed per game (31.9) while the Pirates rank 213th (37.1).
- SMU ranks 32nd in steals per game (7.8) while East Carolina ranks 186th (5.2).
Betting Trends:
- SMU is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, East Carolina is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Mustangs have been outscored by an average of 3.4 points in their last five games. On the season, SMU has defeated opponents by an average of 10.9 points.
- During their last five games, the Pirates have scored an average of 64.8 points per game (0.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 73.6 points per game (3.2 above their season average).
