The Wolfpack of North Carolina State (-24) are set to welcome the East Carolina Pirates to Carter-Finley Stadium. ACC Network is scheduled to broadcast the action and kickoff is pegged for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: East Carolina Pirates vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
North Carolina State has been tabbed as heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 24 points to East Carolina. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 60.5 points. If one team can get out in front early, it’ll likely produce a nice betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s O/U hasn’t changed after being set initially at 60.5. Having said that, the opening line was -25 so has recently moved up to -24.
The Pirates have lost 4.0 units so far and are 4-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 6-5.
The disappointing Wolfpack have lost 10.8 units this season. The team is 5-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-6.
The Pirates have gone only 3-8 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Wolfpack are 8-3 SU.
The Pirates look to bounce back after a 56-6 defeat to Cincinnati last week in which the Pirates completed 10-of-28 passes for 220 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Holton Ahlers went eight-for-22 for 184 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Reid Herring completed two-of-six for 36 yards and two interceptions. Trevon Brown (three receptions, 45 yards) and Leroy Henley (two catches, 40 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
The North Carolina State Pack are coming off of a 34-28 win over North Carolina. The defensive unit allowed the Tar Heels to rush for 153 yards on 35 attempts, including two rush TDs. Dazz Newsome was a bright spot in the loss for North Carolina, recording 91 yards on six catches. For North Carolina State, Ryan Finley completed 16-of-28 passes for 200 yards and one interception. Reggie Gallaspy (129 yards on 27 rush attempts, five TDs) and Ricky Person (66 yards on 16 carries) handled the running game while Jakobi Meyers (seven receptions, 111 yards) and Thayer Thomas (three catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
East Carolina has run the ball on 42.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while North Carolina State has a rush percentage of 49.3 percent. The Pirates have run for 138.6 yards/game and have 13 scores on the ground this year. The Pack are putting up 135.5 rush yards per game and have 23 total rushing TDs.
The Pirates offensive scheme has logged 304.0 yards/contest in the air overall and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Pack have put up 319.2 pass yards per contest and have 21 total pass scores.
Defensively, East Carolina should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 163.9 yards and pass for 256.4 yards per game. The North Carolina State D has given up 289.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 116.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Pack are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.94 to opposing QBs, while the Pirates have allowed an 8.08 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ahlers is up to 1,543 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 45 percent of his 232 attempts with eight scores through the air and three interceptions. He has a 5.92 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.29 over the last two outings.
Ryan Finley has managed to complete 249-of-372 passes for 3,064 yards, 17 TDs and eight INTs for North Carolina State. His ANY/A sits at 7.93 for the year and 7.96 across his last two games.
East Carolina Pirates vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: North Carolina State, ATS Winner: East Carolina, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The North Carolina State defense has produced 33 sacks on the year while East Carolina has 32.
- North Carolina State has lost five fumbles this season while the East Carolina offense has let nine get away.
- The Pirates offense has recorded six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wolfpack have accounted for seven such plays.
- The East Carolina defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while North Carolina State has given up 10 such plays.
- The East Carolina offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while North Carolina State has created nine such runs.
- The Pirates defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Wolfpack have given up 16 such runs.
- The Over/Under for North Carolina State’s previous matchup going into it was 63. The under cashed in the team’s 34-28 victory over North Carolina.
- Over its last three games, North Carolina State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Over its last three contests, East Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for East Carolina’s last game was 50.5. The over cashed in the team’s 56-6 defeat to Cincinnati.
- As a team, East Carolina has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.7 over its last two.
- North Carolina State has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its past two.
