Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz ATS Prediction 01/23/19

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The Denver Nuggets (31-14) and their phenomenal offense head to Utah as 3-point underdogs to play the Jazz (26-22) and their stifling defense. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 217 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 23, 2019.

Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz ATS Odds

In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they easily got past the Cleveland Cavaliers, 124-102, covering as 18-point favorites. The Jazz, meanwhile, were topped by the Portland Trail Blazers, 109-104, resulting in a push. The Denver game went 7 points over the projected point total of 219, while the Utah game went 5.5 points under the projected point total of 218.5.

Denver dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 34.3 (above their season average of 27.8) and a turnover percentage of 10.5 (better than their season average of 11.7). For those same stats, Cleveland was 13.9 and 12.6, respectively. Utah, on the other hand, did a terrific job of getting and making free throws (25-31; 80.6 percent). Donovan Mitchell played well for Utah with 36 points, seven rebounds and five assists. Denver received a boost from Nikola Jokic, who racked up 19 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds. This gave him his fifth triple-double of the season.

In their first matchup this season, Jokic led the Nuggets to a 103-88 win. He produced seven points, 16 assists and 10 rebounds. The two teams combined to put up 191 points, which was well under the projected point total of 210, and Denver covered as a 5-point favorite. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over Utah. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.548 while the Jazz posted a mark of 0.444.

Just over half of the Nuggets’ games have finished under the O/U total. Denver comes into the contest with records of 31-14 straight up (SU) and 25-20 against the spread (ATS).

A little over half of Jazz games have also finished under the O/U total. Additionally, Utah is 26-22 SU and 23-23-2 ATS.

The Nuggets’ Malik Beasley has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 17 points per game. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert has averaged 19 rebounds,17.4 points,3.8 assists,2.4 blocks,1.2 steals during that same time frame for the Jazz.

The game should be a matchup of strength against strength as the prolific offense of Denver takes on the elite defense of Utah. The Nuggets rank fifth in offensive efficiency, while the Jazz are third in defensive efficiency.

Nuggets at Jazz Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Jazz average 5.5 blocks per game, which ranks 10th in the league. The Nuggets rank 15th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
  • Denver ranks fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.1) while Utah ranks 26th (17.7).
  • The Nuggets rank 13th in steals allowed per game (7.5) while the Jazz rank 27th (8.7).
  • Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (20.9) while Denver ranks 14th (24.1).
  • Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (52.2) while Utah ranks 15th (48.7).
  • The Jazz rank first in three pointers allowed per game (27.1) while the Nuggets rank 17th (31.6).
  • The Nuggets rank 19th in fast break points per game (11.6) while the Jazz rank last (9.4).
  • Denver leads the NBA with 41.8 rebounds allowed per game while Utah is second with 42.6 rebounds allowed per game.
  • Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.6) while Utah ranks 17th (13.2).
  • In games where they allow less than 100 points, Denver is 14-1 and Utah is 14-3.
  • When reaching the century mark, the Nuggets are 30-9 and the Jazz are 24-12.
  • Denver is 9-12 ATS on the road, while Utah is 11-10-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 12 of the Nuggets’ 21 road games, while 12 of the Jazz’s 22 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Jazz are 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Utah has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Denver has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (3.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 102.6 points per game (2.4 below their season average).
  • The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.0, down from 5.1 for the season.