Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Prediction 03/04/19

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It figures to be a high-scoring affair as the Denver Nuggets (42-20), 1-point favorites, visit San Antonio to play the Spurs (35-29). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 228 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 4, 2019.

Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs ATS Odds

The Spurs beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last contest, 116-102, easily covering as 5-point favorites. The Nuggets, meanwhile, were beat by the New Orleans Pelicans, 120-112, and failed to cover as 13.5-point underdogs. The San Antonio game finished 11 points under the projected point total of 229, while the Denver game went 6 points under the projected point total of 238.

San Antonio dominated every facet of the game. They had a solid turnover percentage of 9.7 (better than their season average of 11.0) and a free throw rate of 0.198 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Oklahoma City had marks of 11.7 and 0.170, respectively. Denver, meanwhile, did an excellent job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (25-29; 86.2 percent). San Antonio was led by LaMarcus Aldridge, who finished with 27 points and 10 rebounds. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile fueled Denver with 20 points, nine rebounds and seven assists.

The Nuggets evened the season series at one with a 102-99 win in their most recent game. Despite the loss, Aldridge had a stellar game with 24 points and seven rebounds. The Nuggets’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Spurs. Denver had a rate of 38.1, while San Antonio posted a mark of 25.0. The two teams combined to put up 201 points, which was well under the projected point total of 216.5, and Denver was unable to cover as a 5-point favorite.

Games including the Nuggets have a slight tendency to finish under the total (53.2 percent). Denver heads into the game with records of 42-20 straight up (SU) and 33-29 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Spurs’ 64 games, 38 have finished over the total. Further, San Antonio owns records of 35-29 SU and 34-29-1 ATS.

This matchup figures to be a shootout as two of the league’s premier offenses clash. San Antonio currently ranks fourth with 111.4 points per 100 possessions and Denver is fifth (111.3). Also, the Nuggets, who rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.5 percent), will square off against the Spurs, who rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.1 percent).

Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs ATS Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets rank 17th in points off turnovers per game (16.2) while the Spurs rank 28th (14.3).
  • Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (15.6) while San Antonio ranks 27th (11.9).
  • The Nuggets rank 13th in steals per game (7.9) while the Spurs rank last (6.1).
  • Denver ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (11.6) while San Antonio ranks 22nd (14.7).
  • San Antonio ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while Denver ranks 15th (5.1).
  • The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.4) while the Spurs rank 27th (43.3).
  • The Nuggets rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (31.0) while the Spurs rank last (24.8).
  • Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while San Antonio ranks eighth (44.0).
  • Denver ranks second in assists per game (27.6) while San Antonio ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (25.1).
  • In games where they allow less than 100 points, Denver is 19-1 and San Antonio is 12-3.
  • The Nuggets are 40-15 when they reach the century mark, while the Spurs are 34-18.
  • Denver is 11-18 ATS on the road, while San Antonio is 20-11 ATS at home.
  • Of the Nuggets’ 29 road games, they have 17 unders and 12 overs.
  • The Spurs have 16 unders and 15 overs in 31 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Denver and San Antonio are both 3-2 ATS.
  • The Nuggets have 5 unders over their last five games, while the Spurs have 3 unders and 2 overs
  • The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.2, up from 5.0 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 108.2 points per game (3.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.2 points per game (2.0 below their season average).