The Denver Nuggets (22-11), 5-point favorites, will travel to Talking Stick Resort Arena to meet the Phoenix Suns (9-27). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 217.5 points and it will air on Altitude 2 Sports at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 29, 2018.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last game. The Nuggets (4-point favorites) defeated the San Antonio Spurs, 102-99, while the Suns (5.5-point favorites) fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 118-102. The Denver game went 15 points under the projected point total of 216, while the Phoenix game went 8.5 points over the projected point total of 211.5.
Denver dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a phenomenal offensive rebounding percentage of 39.5 (above their season average of 26.9) and a free throw rate of 0.165 (below their season average of 0.185). For those same stats, San Antonio was 25.0 and 0.124, respectively. Phoenix, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of making free throws (15-16; 93.8 percent). Phoenix received a boost from Devin Booker, who recorded 25 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Jamal Murray played a key role for Denver with 31 points and six rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets to a 119-91 victory. He registered a triple-double with 35 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. Denver covered as an 11-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 210 points, which was under the projected point total of 224.5. The Nuggets’ 23.1 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Suns, who had a mark of 18.2.
Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 59.4 percent of their games have finished under the total. Denver heads into the contest with records of 22-11 straight up (SU) and 19-13 against the spread (ATS).
Coinciding with Denver, Suns games also have a tendency to go under the total (57.1 percent). Further, Phoenix owns records of 9-27 SU and 16-19 ATS.
The Nuggets’ Monte Morris has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 14 points,4.8 assists,2.0 steals per game. Meanwhile, Booker has averaged 31 points,8.2 assists,1.2 steals during that same time frame for the Suns.
The offense of Phoenix (28th in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 102.0) will face off against the top-notch defense of Denver (ninth in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 105.0). The Nuggets should have the advantage on that side of the ball. Furthermore, the Nuggets, who rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.2 percent), will attempt to exploit the Suns, who rank 28th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.6 percent).
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns ATS Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Suns rank 5 in three pointers allowed per game (29.055555555555557) while the Nuggets rank 17 (31.696969696969695).
- Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (15.3) while Phoenix ranks 28th (10.8).
- The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (42.4) while the Suns rank 23rd (46.1).
- Denver ranks seventh in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.6) while Phoenix ranks 28th (20.0).
- Denver averages 8.454545454545455 steals per game, which ranks 9 in the NBA. Phoenix ranks 26 in steals allowed per game (9.25).
- The Nuggets rank sixth in points in the paint per game (51.8) while the Suns rank 29th in points allowed in the paint per game (53.2).
- The Nuggets average 26.848484848484848 assists per game, which ranks 4 in the league. The Suns rank 25 in assists allowed per game (25.25).
- Denver ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (11.6) while Phoenix ranks 29th (16.3).
- In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Denver is 13-1 and Phoenix is 3-1.
- In games where they reach the century mark, the Suns are 8-15 and the Nuggets are 21-7.
- Denver is 7-9 ATS on the road, while Phoenix is 8-8 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 10 of the Nuggets’ 16 road games, while 10 of the Suns’ 16 home games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Suns are 5-0 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 3-2.
- In their last five games, Phoenix has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.4, down from 8.7 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 107.4 points per game (2.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.2 points per game (4.9 above their season average).
