The winless New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) welcome the Denver Nuggets (3-1) to Smoothie King Center. Action gets underway at 9:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 31, 2019.
Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Pelicans ATS Odds
In their last outing, the Nuggets (6-point favorites) were defeated by the Dallas Mavericks, 109-106, while the Pelicans (4-point favorites) fell to the Golden State Warriors, 134-123. The Denver game finished 1 point under the projected point total of 216, while the New Orleans game went 21 points over the projected point total of 236.
Denver had an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.4 (above their season average of 25.3) while New Orleans had a better turnover percentage (11.7 vs. 13.6). New Orleans was led by Brandon Ingram, who finished with 27 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile led the way for Denver with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists to register his first triple-double of the season.
This series was highly contested last year. Each won two of the four games played against each other last season. In the most recent matchup, the Pelicans won 120-112. New Orleans had a better offensive rebounding percentage (26.1 vs. 22.2). Denver, meanwhile, did a terrific job of getting and making free throws (25-29; 86.2 percent).
Since last season, the Nuggets are 57-29 straight up (SU) and 39-44-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been spot on when setting the O/U total of Denver games since last year, with an even split between overs and unders.
Although the Pelicans have struggled winning games outright since last season (33-53 SU), they are 53-41-1 ATS. Games featuring New Orleans have had a tendency to go over the O/U total over that same time frame (58.9 percent).
This contest should be a matchup of contrasting tempos. Dating back to the 2018-19 season, New Orleans has preferred a fast-breaking style of play (second in possessions per game), while Denver has been more half-court-oriented (27th in possessions per game). Moreover, the Nuggets rank fifth in turnover percentage (12.4 percent), while the Pelicans rank 22nd in opponents’ turnover percentage (12.5 percent).
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans ATS Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
Betting Notes (2018-Present):
- The Nuggets rank 10th in three pointers allowed per game (31.1) while the Pelicans rank 26th (34.0).
- Denver ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while New Orleans ranks 27th (18.1).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while the Pelicans rank 26th (15.9).
- Denver averages 15.6 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 21st in second chance points allowed per game (14.0).
- Denver ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while New Orleans ranks 22nd (46.1).
- The Nuggets average 26.7 assists per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 29th in assists allowed per game (26.6).
- The Nuggets rank eighth in steals allowed per game (7.1) while the Pelicans rank 27th (8.5).
- New Orleans averages 5.4 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Denver ranks 13th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
- Denver averages 51.5 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the league. New Orleans ranks 28th in points allowed in the paint per game (52.0).
- New Orleans is 5-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Denver is 29-3.
- The Pelicans are 33-45 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 59-25.
