The Minnesota Timberwolves (15-27) and the Denver Nuggets (29-13) square off at Target Center. The Timberwolves are 2.5-point favorites and will attempt to put an end to their five-game losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218.5 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 20, 2020.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Odds
Both teams did not cover as underdogs in their last matchup. The Nuggets (3-point underdogs) were defeated by the Indiana Pacers, 115-107, while the Timberwolves (3.5-point underdogs) fell to the Toronto Raptors, 122-112. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Denver game went 8.5 points over the projected point total of 213.5, while the Minnesota game finished 10 points over the projected point total of 224.
Denver had a better turnover percentage (8.1 vs. 12.9) while Minnesota held Toronto to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.9 (below their season average of 22.3). Andrew Wiggins led the way for Minnesota with 18 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds to notch his zeroth triple-double this season. Denver received a boost from Nikola Jokic, who had 30 points and 10 rebounds.
In their two contests this season, the Nuggets have won both. The two teams combined to score 209 points in their most recent game, which was under the projected point total of 215. Denver won 109-100 but was unable to cover as an 11-point favorite. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Minnesota. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.551 while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 0.471. Jokic played a huge role in the victory, recording a a triple-double with 22 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
Of the Nuggets’ 41 games with betting action, 24 have gone under the total. Denver has a respectable 29-13 straight up (SU) record, but they have a hard time covering the spread (16-19-6 against the spread (ATS)).
Contrary to Denver, a little over half of Timberwolves games have finished over the O/U total. Additionally, Minnesota owns records of 15-27 SU and 17-23-2 ATS.
It will be a matchup of opposite styles as the up-and-down Timberwolves (ranked first in the NBA in possessions per game) will look to push the more methodical Nuggets (27th in possessions per game). Also, the Nuggets could control the offensive glass in this showdown as they rank fourth in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 24.7 percent. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, rank 22nd at grabbing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 76.7 percent.
Nuggets at Timberwolves Free Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank fourth in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Timberwolves rank 13th (7.5).
- Minnesota ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (39.3) while Denver ranks 28th (29.8).
- The Nuggets rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while the Timberwolves rank 20th (17.4).
- Minnesota ranks fourth in blocks per game (6.1) while Denver ranks 20th (4.6).
- Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (50.2) while Minnesota ranks 20th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.0).
- The Nuggets rank sixth in rebounds allowed per game (43.4) while the Timberwolves rank 29th (48.1).
- The Nuggets average 13.8 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
- Denver ranks 24th in fast break points per game (11.6) while Minnesota ranks 27th (10.3).
- Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.2) while Minnesota ranks 22nd (22.8).
- Denver is 11-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Minnesota is 2-1.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Nuggets are 27-9 and the Timberwolves are 14-20.
- Denver is 8-8-3 ATS on the road, while Minnesota is 5-14-1 ATS at home.
- Of the Nuggets’ 19 road games, they have 10 overs and 9 unders.
- The Timberwolves have 10 overs and 10 unders in 20 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Denver has 4 unders and 1 over, while Minnesota has 4 overs and 1 under.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (2.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.4 points per game (3.7 above their season average).
- The Timberwolves’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 12.0, up from 3.3 for the season.
