The Denver Nuggets (6-2), 2-point favorites, will be at the Target Center to clash against the Minnesota Timberwolves (5-3) in a Northwest Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 217 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 10, 2019.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Odds
Both teams were victorious in their last game. The Timberwolves (12-point favorites) defeated the Golden State Warriors 125-119, while the Nuggets (5-point favorites) edged the Philadelphia 76ers 100-97. The Minnesota game went 16.5 points over the projected point total of 227.5, while the Denver game finished 14.5 points under the projected point total of 211.5.
The Nuggets forced 17 turnovers, while the 76ers had a free throw rate of 0.093 (below their season average of 0.223). The Timberwolves, meanwhile, had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 35.7 (above their season average of 21.3) and had a better turnover percentage (12.1 vs. 14.3). Minnesota received a boost from Andrew Wiggins, who put up 40 points, seven assists and five rebounds. Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver, finishing with 26 points, 10 rebounds and six assists.
The Nuggets dominated this series last year, securing victories in all four games. In the most recent game, Denver won 99-95. Denver’s 0.126 free throw rate was their biggest strength over Minnesota, who had a mark of 0.044.
Of the Nuggets’ eight games, seven have gone under the total. Denver is 6-2 straight up (SU), but they are just 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Denver, games involving the Timberwolves have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (75.0 percent). Minnesota is 5-3 SU, but they struggle covering the spread (3-4-1 ATS).
Minnesota should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Dating back to last season, Minnesota ranks third in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.4 percent), while Denver has forced the eighth-fewest turnovers (12.7 percent). Additionally, the Nuggets rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (26.3 percent), while the Timberwolves rank 25th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.1 percent).
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes (2018-Present):
- The Nuggets lead the league with 14.2 points off turnovers allowed per game while the Timberwolves are fifth with 15.3 points off turnovers allowed per game.
- Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (15.4). Minnesota ranks 25th in second chance points allowed per game (14.7).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while the Timberwolves rank 15th (45.8).
- Denver averages 51.4 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Minnesota ranks 14th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.9).
- Denver averages 4.5 blocks per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 24th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
- The Nuggets rank second in assists per game (26.6) while the Timberwolves rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (26.0).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while the Timberwolves rank 11th (13.6).
- Denver ranks 17th in three pointers attempted per game (30.6) while Minnesota ranks 18th in three pointers allowed per game (33.4).
- Minnesota ranks fourth in steals per game (8.5) while Denver ranks 17th (7.5).
- When allowing less than 100 points, Denver is 32-3 and Minnesota is 13-1.
- When reaching the century mark, the Timberwolves are 40-41 and the Nuggets are 61-26.
