The Miami Heat (19-19) will be 1-point favorites at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they meet the Denver Nuggets (26-12). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 209.5 points and it can be seen on Altitude 2 Sports at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 8, 2019.
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat Betting Odds
Both teams were beaten in their last contest. The Nuggets (9-point underdogs) were defeated by the Houston Rockets, 125-113, while the Heat (6.5-point favorites) fell to the Atlanta Hawks, 106-82. The Denver game went 20 points over the projected point total of 218, while the Miami game went 30.5 points under the projected point total of 218.5.
Denver held Houston to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.1 (below their season average of 25.2) while Miami had a better free throw rate (0.172 vs. 0.110). Miami was led by Bam Adebayo, who contributed 12 points and six rebounds. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic was a key piece for Denver with 24 points and 13 rebounds.
This was a highly contested series last year. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. The Heat won the last contest 149-141. Miami was lights out from beyond the arc (20-36; 55.6 percent). Denver, on the other hand, did an excellent job of getting and making free throws (31-37; 83.8 percent). This will be the first meeting of the year between these two teams.
Games featuring the Nuggets have a slight tendency to finish under the projected point total (54.1 percent). Denver holds records of 26-12 straight up (SU) and 21-16 against the spread (ATS).
Heat games have typically gone over the projected point total (55.3 percent). Additionally, Miami is 19-19 SU and 20-17-1 ATS.
The Nuggets’ Jokic has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 26 points,11.2 rebounds,9.0 assists,1.6 steals,1.2 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Justise Winslow has averaged 16 points,6.2 assists,5.4 rebounds,1.6 steals during that same time frame for the Heat.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami figures to have a substantial edge. The Heat defense ranks first in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502), while the Denver offense is ranked 15th in effective field goal percentage (0.524).
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank 15th in steals per game (7.8) while the Nuggets rank 17th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
- Denver averages 15.9 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. Miami ranks 24th in second chance points allowed per game (14.2).
- The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while the Heat rank 17th (44.8).
- Miami ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while Denver ranks 17th (48.8).
- Miami averages 33.3 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Denver ranks 18th in three pointers allowed per game (31.8).
- The Nuggets rank second in assists per game (27.2) while the Heat rank 20th (23.3).
- The Nuggets rank 16th in fast break points per game (12.0) while the Heat rank 27th (10.1).
- Miami ranks second in blocks per game (6.0) while Denver ranks 19th (4.7).
- In games where they allow below 100 points, Denver is 13-1 and Miami is 12-1.
- When reaching 100 points, the Heat are 17-13 and the Nuggets are 25-8.
- Denver is 8-10 ATS on the road, while Miami is 8-11-1 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 11 of the Heat’s 20 home games, while 10 of the Nuggets’ 18 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Denver and Miami are both 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.2, down from 4.9 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (0.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 102.8 points per game (3.0 below their season average).
