Northwest Division foes will clash when the Minnesota Timberwolves (21-13) meet the Denver Nuggets (19-15) at Target Center. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 214.5 points with Minnesota set as a 5.5-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 27, 2017, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
The Nuggets won big over the Utah Jazz in their last contest, 107-83. Jamal Murray was the games leading scorer with 22 points on 9-for-15 shooting. The Nuggets held the Jazz to an effective field goal percentage of 0.381 (below their season average of 0.523) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 vs. 21.8).
In the Timberwolves last matchup, they beat the Los Angeles Lakers, 121-104. Karl-Anthony Towns played a pivotal role for Minnesota with 21 points and 10 rebounds. Minnesota’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Los Angeles. The Timberwolves had a rate of 0.649 (above their season average of 0.518), while the Lakers posted a mark of 0.489 (below the 0.546 mark opponents have averaged against Minnesota this season).
A focal point for the Minnesota offense is getting to the free throw line. The Timberwolves rank third in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.226), but Denver is among the best in the league at keeping opponents away from the charity stripe (ranking fourth by yielding a FTA rate of 0.167). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Nuggets, which ranks 24th in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.4 percent). They’ll be going up against the top-notch defense of the Timberwolves, which forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (15.8 percent).
Of Denver’s 33 games with betting action, 18 have finished under the projected point total, while 19 of Minnesota’s 34 games have finished over the O/U total. The Timberwolves have the significant advantage straight up (SU) (21-13 vs. 19-15), but both teams have comparable against the spread (ATS) records. Minnesota is 15-17-2, while Denver is 15-17-1 ATS.
Trey Lyles has taken his game to another level recently for Denver, averaging 14.8 points and 6.6 rebounds over the last five games.
These teams have already met once this season. The two teams combined to score 216 points in that game, which was just over the projected point total of 215. The Timberwolves won 112-104, covering as 1-point favorites. Minnesota had a much better turnover percentage (7.7 vs. 20.3). Denver, meanwhile, did an excellent job of making free throws (19-24; 79.2 percent). Towns put up a double-double in the victory with 25 points and 10 rebounds.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets average 23.4 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Timberwolves rank 26th in assists allowed per game (24.4).
- Denver ranks fifth in rebounds per game (45.4) while Minnesota ranks 22nd (41.7).
- Denver ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.1) while Minnesota ranks 24th in fast break points allowed per game (13.4).
- Denver ranks 19th in blocks per game (4.6) while Minnesota ranks 25th (3.9).
- Denver is 7-11-1 ATS on the road, while Minnesota is 5-11-1 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 11 of the Nuggets 19 road games, while 8 of the Timberwolves 17 home games have gone over.
- Denver is 10-2 when they allow under 100 points, while Minnesota is 9-2.
- The Timberwolves are 19-8 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 16-9.
- The Nuggets rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.2) while the Timberwolves rank 26th (22.9).
- Minnesota averages 18.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Denver ranks last in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.5).
- The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.6) while the Nuggets rank 24th (8.3).
- The Nuggets average 15.6 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 14th in second chance points allowed per game (12.2).
- Minnesota ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (47.9) while Denver ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.2).
Bettings Trends:
- Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Denver is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Timberwolves average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 2.1 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 100.6 points per game (6.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 91.2 points per game (13.9 below their season average).
