The Dallas Mavericks (6-17) will be at home in American Airlines Center when they square off with the Denver Nuggets (13-9). Dallas is a 3-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 209 points. Action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, December 4, 2017, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Preview
The Nuggets beat the Los Angeles Lakers in their last game, 115-100. Jamal Murray was the top scorer from either team with 28 points on 8-for-20 shooting. Denver dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a turnover percentage of 10.8 (better than their season average of 14.3) and a free throw rate of 0.264 (above their season average of 0.195). Los Angeles had marks of 18.1 and 0.174, respectively, for those same stats.
In the Mavericks last game, they dismantled the Los Angeles Clippers, 108-82. Dallas rallied around J.J. Barea, who was the games high scorer with 21 points on 8-for-12 shooting. Dallas played a nearly flawless game. They had a ridiculous offensive rebounding percentage of 35.7 (above their season average of 17.9) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.557 (above their season average of 0.498). For those same stats, Los Angeles recorded marks of 22.0 and 0.384, respectively.
Dallas may have trouble getting to the free throw line in this contest. The Mavericks rank 25th in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.177, while Denver ranks second in FTA rate allowed (0.159). Also, the Nuggets rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.4 percent), while the Mavericks rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.7 percent).
Of Denver’s 22 games, 13 have finished under the projected point total, while 12 of Dallas 23 games have finished under the projected point total. The Nuggets have the clear advantage straight up (SU) (13-9 vs. 6-17), but both teams have similar against the spread (ATS) records. Denver is 9-13 ATS, while Dallas is 9-14 ATS.
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Nuggets, it’s been Gary Harris, who has averaged 17.4 points and 2.8 steals, while the Mavericks have received solid contributions from Dirk Nowitzki (13.4 points and 7.2 rebounds).
This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams, after the Nuggets won three out of four contests last season. In the most recent game, Denver won 109-91. The Nuggets played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.7 and a great effective field goal percentage of 0.595. For those same stats, the Mavericks put up marks of 15.7 and 0.466, respectively.
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
- The Mavericks rank third in three pointers attempted per game (33.0) while the Nuggets rank 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (30.2).
- Denver ranks 11th in steals per game (8.1) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.9).
- Dallas ranks 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.1) while Denver ranks last (21.0).
- Denver ranks 15th in blocks per game (4.5) while Dallas ranks 25th (3.5).
- Dallas is 5-9 ATS at home, while Denver is 2-8 ATS on the road.
- In 10 road games, the Nuggets have 6 unders and 4 overs.
- The Mavericks have 7 unders, 6 overs and 1 push in 14 home games.
- When allowing under 100 points, Dallas is 6-4 and Denver is 5-1.
- In games where they score more than 100 points, the Mavericks are 4-7 and the Nuggets are 11-4.
- The Nuggets rank eighth in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while the Mavericks rank 25th (46.0).
- Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.0) while Dallas ranks last (36.7).
- The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.8) while the Mavericks rank 24th (10.6).
- The Mavericks rank 13th in assists allowed per game (22.3) while the Nuggets rank 25th (24.4).
- Denver averages 14.4 fast break points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Dallas ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).
- Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of 6.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Dallas has been defeated by an average of 3.9 points.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 100.4 points per game (6.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.6 points per game (0.3 above their season average).