Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs Betting Prediction 12/26/18

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The San Antonio Spurs (18-16) will be 3-point favorites at home in the AT&T Center when they meet the Denver Nuggets (21-10). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213.5 points and it will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs ATS Odds

Both teams failed to cover as underdogs in their last matchup. The Spurs (4.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Houston Rockets, 108-101, while the Nuggets (2-point underdogs) fell to the Los Angeles Clippers, 132-111. The San Antonio game finished 8 points under the projected point total of 217, while the Denver game went 22 points over the projected point total of 221.

Denver had a much better turnover percentage (7.7 vs. 13.1) while San Antonio had a better effective field goal percentage (0.534 vs. 0.489). San Antonio’s DeMar DeRozan led the way, recording 28 points, eight assists and seven rebounds. Denver was led by Nikola Jokic, who finished with 19 points and six rebounds.

This was a highly competitive series last year, as the teams split their four games last season. The Nuggets won the last contest 122-119. Denver won the rebounding battle. The Nuggets had 18 offensive rebounds and 52 total rebounds, while the Spurs had 11 and 38, respectively. This will be the first meeting of the year between these two teams.

Nuggets games have typically gone under the total (58.1 percent). Denver comes into the game with records of 21-10 straight up (SU) and 19-12 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Denver, Spurs games have typically finished over the total (55.9 percent). Additionally, San Antonio is 18-16 SU and 18-15-1 ATS.

Jokic and Monte Morris have played at a high level over the last five games for Denver. Jokic has averaged 27 points,12.8 rebounds,6.0 assists,2.4 steals per game, while Morris has put up 14 points,5.4 assists,2.4 steals a game during that span.

Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams battle. San Antonio currently ranks 26th in possessions per game (100.0) and Denver is 24th (100.6). Furthermore, the Nuggets are among the NBA’s best on the offensive backboards, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.1 percent). The Spurs, however, rank fifth at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 78.5 percent.

Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs Odds Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets rank 1 in rebounds allowed per game (42.32258064516129) while the Spurs rank 10 (43.8235294117647).
  • Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (52.6) while San Antonio ranks 26th (43.4).
  • The Spurs rank third in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while the Nuggets rank 22nd (5.6).
  • Denver averages 26.7 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. San Antonio ranks 19th in assists allowed per game (24.3).
  • Denver ranks 20 in three pointers attempted per game (29.93548387096774) while San Antonio ranks last (24.058823529411764).
  • The Nuggets rank third in second chance points per game (15.3) while the Spurs rank 23rd (11.9).
  • The Nuggets rank 16 in fast break points per game (12.258064516129032) while the Spurs rank 29 (9.764705882352942).
  • Denver ranks 22 in points off turnovers per game (15.903225806451612) while San Antonio ranks 27 (14.411764705882353).
  • Denver ranks 10th in steals per game (8.5) while San Antonio ranks 29th (5.9).
  • When allowing below 100 points, Denver is 12-1 and San Antonio is 10-2.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Nuggets are 20-6 and the Spurs are 17-10.
  • San Antonio is 12-6 ATS at home, while Denver is 7-8 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 9 of the Spurs’ 18 home games, while 9 of the Nuggets’ 15 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Spurs are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Denver has 3 overs and 2 unders, while San Antonio has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 109.2 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.6 points per game (2.3 above their season average).
  • The Spurs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.0, up from 1.8 for the season.