Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Prediction

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It will be a clash between two exceptional defenses when the Oklahoma City Thunder (12-6), 5-point favorites, challenge the Denver Nuggets (12-7) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 217 points and it can be seen on Altitude 2 Sports at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 24, 2018.

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last outing. The Thunder (1.5-point underdogs) defeated the Charlotte Hornets 109-104, while the Nuggets (1-point underdog) beat the Orlando Magic 112-87. The Oklahoma City game went 10.5 points under the projected point total of 223.5, while the Denver game finished 20.5 points under the projected point total of 219.5.

Denver played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.7 (below their season average of 27.0) and a turnover percentage of 9.9 (better than their season average of 12.3). Orlando had marks of 9.3 and 13.0, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over Charlotte. The Thunder had a rate of 0.172 (below their season average of 0.193), while the Hornets posted a mark of 0.128 (below their season average of 0.198). Oklahoma City rallied around Russell Westbrook, who put up 30 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists. Mason Plumlee, meanwhile was a key piece for Denver with 15 points and 11 rebounds.

The Nuggets captured this series last year, winning three out of four games. In the most recent matchup, Denver won 126-125. Denver did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (18-21; 85.7 percent). Oklahoma City, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (6.3 vs. 12.7). This is the first time these teams will clash this year.

Nuggets matchups tend to finish under the total (61.1 percent). Denver heads into the game with records of 12-7 straight up (SU) and 9-9 against the spread (ATS).

Much like Denver, a little over half of Thunder games have finished under the O/U total. Further, Oklahoma City owns records of 12-6 SU and 11-6 ATS.

Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the NBA’s top rebounding teams face off. The Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (28.3 percent), while Denver ranks fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.4 percent).

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets average 13.31578947368421 fast break points per game, which ranks 14 in the NBA. The Thunder rank 20 in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
  • Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (21.9).
  • The Thunder average 17.2 second chance points per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 13th in second chance points allowed per game (12.7).
  • Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (53.5) while Oklahoma City ranks 15th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.7).
  • Oklahoma City ranks 16 in blocks per game (5.333333333333333) while Denver ranks 22 in blocks allowed per game (5.7368421052631575).
  • The Thunder rank first in points off turnovers per game (21.9) while the Nuggets rank 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.6).
  • The Nuggets rank 1 in rebounds allowed per game (40.94736842105263) while the Thunder rank 9 (43.55555555555556).
  • Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (10.7) while Denver ranks 16th in steals allowed per game (7.7).
  • When allowing under 100 points, Oklahoma City is 3-0 and Denver is 7-1.
  • The Thunder are 10-3 when they score more than 100 points, while the Nuggets are 12-4.
  • Denver is 3-5 ATS on the road, while Oklahoma City is 5-3 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 6 of the Thunder’s 8 home games, while 6 of the Nuggets’ 8 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Thunder are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Oklahoma City has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 116.6 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game (1.7 below their season average).
  • The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 11.2, up from 6.8 for the season.