Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Prediction 02/21/20

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The Denver Nuggets (38-17), 1-point underdogs, will be at Chesapeake Energy Arena to square off with the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-22) in a Northwest Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 215 points and it will air on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, February 21, 2020.

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Odds

The Thunder defeated the New Orleans Pelicans in their last contest, 123-118, despite being 3.5-point underdogs. The Nuggets, on the other hand, were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers, 120-116, and were unable to cover as 3-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Oklahoma City game finished 7.5 points over the projected point total of 233.5, while the Denver game went 15.5 points over the projected point total of 220.5.

The Thunder had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 6.4 (better than their season average of 11.9) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.571 (above their season average of 0.532). Denver, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of making free throws (17-22; 77.3 percent). Chris Paul played a key role for Oklahoma City with 14 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds. Denver, meanwhile, was led by Jamal Murray, who had 32 points and 10 assists.

In their first matchup this season, Jokic led the Nuggets to a 110-102 win. He registered a triple-double with 28 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists. Denver covered as a 6-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 212 points, which was over the projected point total of 204. The Nuggets’ 25.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Thunder, who had a rate of 17.1.

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Nuggets games, with 30 unders compared to 25 overs. Denver holds records of 38-17 straight up (SU) and 25-24-6 against the spread (ATS).

A little over half of Thunder games have also finished under the O/U total. Further, Oklahoma City is 33-22 SU and 35-19-1 ATS.

Half-court execution will be critical when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Oklahoma City ranks 24th in possessions per game (100.8) and Denver is 28th (100.3). Furthermore, the Nuggets rank 24th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.181), while the Thunder rank second in opponents’ FTA rate (0.165).

Nuggets at Thunder Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets rank 26th in three pointers attempted per game (30.6) while the Thunder rank 27th (29.7).
  • Denver ranks fifth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Oklahoma City ranks last (10.7).
  • The Thunder rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Nuggets rank 11th (4.8).
  • Denver ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (11.5) while Oklahoma City ranks 29th (9.3).
  • Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while Oklahoma City ranks eighth (15.6).
  • The Nuggets rank third in assists per game (26.5) while the Thunder rank 27th (22.0).
  • The Thunder rank second in steals allowed per game (6.8) while the Nuggets rank eighth (6.9).
  • Denver ranks 10th in points in the paint per game (48.9) while Oklahoma City ranks 18th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.9).
  • When allowing less than 100 points, Denver is 13-1 and Oklahoma City is 7-3.
  • The Thunder are 32-14 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 35-12.
  • Denver is 13-11-3 ATS on the road, while Oklahoma City is 14-14-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 15 of the Thunder’s 29 home games, while 14 of the Nuggets’ 27 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Thunder are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Denver has 4 overs and 1 under, while Oklahoma City has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.6, up from 3.8 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 111.4 points per game (0.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (1.6 above their season average).