The Denver Nuggets (50-24), 4.5-point underdogs, will be at Chesapeake Energy Arena to challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder (44-31) in a Northwest Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 221 points and it will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, March 29, 2019.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Odds
The last time the Thunder took the court, they covered the 6.5-point spread against the Indiana Pacers, 107-99. The Nuggets, on the other hand, were dismantled by the Houston Rockets, 112-85, and failed to cover as 7.5-point underdogs. The Oklahoma City game finished 11 points under the projected point total of 217, while the Denver game went 15.5 points under the projected point total of 212.5.
Oklahoma City played a perfect contest. They had a free throw rate of 0.130 (matching their season average) and a turnover percentage of 5.6 (better than their season average of 11.7). Indiana was 0.065 and 10.2, respectively, for those same stats. Denver, on the other hand, did a great job of converting from the charity stripe (19-20; 95.0 percent). Russell Westbrook had an excellent outing for Oklahoma City, racking up 17 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds on his way to his 28th triple-double of the season. Denver was led by Nikola Jokic, who put up 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
In their three matchups this season, the Nuggets have won all three. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to score 233 points, which was under the projected point total of 238.5. Denver won 121-112, covering as a 4-point favorite. Denver did a great job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (26-35; 74.3 percent). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (28.0 vs. 25.6). Jokic put up a double-double in the victory with 36 points and 10 assists.
Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 42 of their 73 contests have gone under the O/U total. Denver heads into the contest with records of 50-24 straight up (SU) and 38-35 against the spread (ATS).
Much like Denver, just over half of Thunder games have finished under the O/U total. Additionally, Oklahoma City owns records of 44-31 SU and 38-37 ATS.
Conflicting tempos will be on display in this battle. Oklahoma City prefers a fast-breaking style of play (second in possessions per game), while Denver is slower-paced (24th in possessions per game).
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
- The Nuggets average 15.7 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. The Thunder rank ninth in second chance points allowed per game (12.7).
- Denver ranks second in assists per game (27.5) while Oklahoma City ranks 25th (23.1).
- The Thunder rank 11th in blocks per game (5.3) while the Nuggets rank 25th (4.5).
- Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (52.5) while Oklahoma City ranks 18th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.3).
- Oklahoma City ranks fifth in fast break points per game (18.0) while Denver ranks 15th (12.6).
- The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while the Thunder rank 23rd (46.1).
- The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.5) while the Nuggets rank 14th (7.6).
- Oklahoma City ranks 14th in three pointers attempted per game (32.1) while Denver ranks 16th in three pointers allowed per game (32.3).
- Oklahoma City ranks second in points off turnovers per game (19.3) while Denver ranks 20th (15.7).
- Denver is 23-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 11-0.
- When scoring above 100 points, the Nuggets are 47-17 and the Thunder are 40-24.
- Denver is 15-21 ATS on the road, while Oklahoma City is 18-18 ATS at home.
- The Nuggets have 23 unders and 13 overs in 36 road games.
- The Thunder have 19 overs, 16 unders and 1 push in 36 home games.
- In their last five games, Denver and Oklahoma City are both 2-3 ATS.
- The Nuggets have 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games, while the Thunder have 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push
- The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 7.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 4.2 points.
- During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 109.4 points per game (4.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.4 points per game (1.5 above their season average).