Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Free Prediction

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The Denver Nuggets (10-7), 1.5-point underdogs, will be at the Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (7-10) in a Northwest Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215.5 points and it can be seen on Altitude 2 Sports at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 21, 2018.

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Odds

Both teams fell in their last game. The Nuggets (5.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Milwaukee Bucks, 104-98, while the Timberwolves (5.5-point favorites) fell to the Memphis Grizzlies, 100-87. The Denver game went 22.5 points under the projected point total of 224.5, while the Minnesota game went 21.5 points under the projected point total of 208.5.

Denver held Milwaukee to an effective field goal percentage of 0.517 (below their season average of 0.568) while Minnesota held Memphis to an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.4 (below the 29.8 mark opponents have averaged against Minnesota this season). Minnesota received a boost from Karl-Anthony Towns, who contributed 15 points and 20 rebounds. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray had a good outing for Denver, putting up 17 points, nine assists and eight rebounds.

The Timberwolves edged out the Nuggets in this series last year, emerging victorious in three out of four games. In the last contest, Minnesota won 112-106. One of Minnesota’s largest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They had 25 free throw attempts, while Denver had 18. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Matchups involving the Nuggets tend to finish under the total (58.8 percent). Denver heads into the game with records of 10-7 straight up (SU) and 8-9 against the spread (ATS).

Much like Denver, games featuring the Timberwolves also tend to finish under the total (64.7 percent). Additionally, Minnesota owns records of 7-10 SU and 8-9 ATS.

Towns has been on fire as of late for Minnesota, averaging 23 points,14.8 rebounds,1.8 blocks over the last five games.

Minnesota might have difficulty finding the bottom of the net as they go head-to-head against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Denver currently ranks ninth in defensive efficiency while the Timberwolves rank 20th in offensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.2 percent), while the Timberwolves rank 30th in defensive rebounding percentage (70.8 percent).

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets average 30 three pointers per game, which ranks 18 in the league. The Timberwolves rank 23 in three pointers allowed per game (32.88235294117647).
  • Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while Minnesota ranks 27th (48.8).
  • The Timberwolves rank second in steals allowed per game (6.7) while the Nuggets rank 19th (7.8).
  • Denver averages 53.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (49.5).
  • Minnesota ranks 10 in blocks per game (5.647058823529412) while Denver ranks 22 in blocks allowed per game (6.117647058823529).
  • The Nuggets rank fifth in second chance points per game (15.6) while the Timberwolves rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (17.0).
  • The Nuggets rank 11 in points off turnovers per game (17.58823529411765) while the Timberwolves rank 25 (15.470588235294118).
  • Minnesota averages 16.294117647058822 fast break points per game, which ranks 6 in the league. Denver ranks 10 in fast break points allowed per game (12.764705882352942).
  • Denver ranks sixth in assists per game (25.9) while Minnesota ranks 26th in assists allowed per game (25.3).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Denver is 6-1 and Minnesota is 2-0.
  • The Nuggets are 10-4 when they score more than 100 points, while the Timberwolves are 7-6.
  • Denver is 2-5 ATS on the road, while Minnesota is 6-3 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 5 of the Timberwolves’ 9 home games, while 5 of the Nuggets’ 7 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Minnesota has 4 unders and 1 over, while Denver has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (2.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (8.1 below their season average).
  • The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 6.0 for the season.