The Houston Rockets (47-28) will be 5-point favorites at home in the Toyota Center when they clash against the Denver Nuggets (50-23). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 218 points and it will air on NBATV at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 28, 2019.
Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets ATS Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last matchup. The Nuggets (7.5-point favorites) defeated the Detroit Pistons, 95-92, while the Rockets (2.5-point underdogs) fell to the Milwaukee Bucks, 108-94. The Denver game went 25.5 points under the projected point total of 212.5, while the Houston game went 22 points under the projected point total of 224.
The Nuggets had a better free throw rate (0.161 vs. 0.088) and held the Pistons to an effective field goal percentage of 0.407 (below their season average of 0.511). Houston, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (11.3 vs. 13.1). James Harden played well for Houston with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Denver received a boost from Nikola Jokic, who put up 23 points and 15 rebounds.
The Rockets lead the season series two games to one. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 258 points, well over the projected point total of 223.5. Houston lost 136-122, covering as a 4-point underdog. One of Denver’s biggest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 20-23 (87.0 percent), while the Rockets were 16-21 (76.2 percent). Jokic recorded a double-double with 31 points and 13 rebounds.
Nuggets games have a tendency to go under the projected point total (57.5 percent). Denver holds records of 50-23 straight up (SU) and 38-35 against the spread (ATS).
Much like Denver, just over half of Rockets games have finished under the total. Further, Houston is 47-28 SU and 34-38-3 ATS.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Houston ranks 23rd in possessions per game (100.5) and Denver is 25th (100.3). Also, the Nuggets rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.3 percent), while the Rockets rank 28th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.2 percent).
Nuggets vs. Rockets Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Rockets average 18.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Nuggets rank seventh in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.1).
- Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (52.6) while Houston ranks last (42.2).
- The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.7) while the Rockets rank 20th in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (44.8) while Denver ranks 16th (31.5).
- Denver ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Houston ranks 11th (13.2).
- The Nuggets rank second in assists per game (27.6) while the Rockets rank 28th (20.9).
- The Rockets rank fifth in steals per game (8.6) while the Nuggets rank 14th (7.6).
- Denver ranks sixth in rebounds per game (46.8) while Houston ranks 28th (41.8).
- When allowing under 100 points, Houston is 13-2 and Denver is 23-1.
- When reaching 100 points, the Nuggets are 47-17 and the Rockets are 44-19.
- Denver is 15-21 ATS on the road, while Houston is 19-16-2 ATS at home.
- The Nuggets have 23 unders and 13 overs in 36 road games.
- The Rockets have 21 overs and 16 unders in 37 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Denver and Houston have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Rockets are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
- The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.0, up from 3.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 104.2 points per game (7.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.4 points per game (2.4 below their season average).
