The NBA’s top scoring team will be 6.5-point favorites at home in ORACLE Arena, when the Golden State Warriors (44-20) square off against the Denver Nuggets (43-21). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 234 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 8, 2019.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds
The Nuggets come in on a high note after comfortably covering the 5-point spread against the Los Angeles Lakers in their last matchup, 115-99. The Warriors, meanwhile, were blown out by the Boston Celtics, 128-95, and were not able to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. The Denver game went 17.5 points under the projected point total of 231.5, while the Golden State game finished 5.5 points under the projected point total of 228.5.
Denver dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an extraordinary offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (above their season average of 27.4) and a turnover percentage of 7.0 (better than their season average of 11.6). Los Angeles was 11.9 and 11.3, respectively, for those same stats. Golden State, on the other hand, did an excellent job of making free throws (19-23; 82.6 percent). Golden State’s Stephen Curry had a good game, putting up 23 points. Nikola Jokic played a key role for Denver with 12 points, 17 rebounds and eight assists.
The Warriors evened the season series at one with a 142-111 blowout win in their most recent contest. Kevin Durant was a standout player in the game, putting up 27 points and six assists. The Warriors’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Nuggets. Golden State had a rate of 30.8, while Denver posted a mark of 19.1. Golden State covered as a 2.5-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 253 points, which was well over the projected point total of 227.
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Nuggets games, with 35 unders compared to 29 overs. Denver heads into the game with records of 43-21 straight up (SU) and 35-29 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Denver, just over half of Warriors games have finished over the O/U total. Golden State is 44-20 SU, but they are just 25-38-1 ATS.
This battle figures to be a shootout as two of the league’s top offenses battle. Golden State ranks first with 114.6 points per 100 possessions and Denver is fourth (111.3).
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets average 7.8 steals per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Warriors rank 13th in steals allowed per game (7.5).
- Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (6.5) while Denver ranks 25th (4.5).
- The Nuggets rank second in second chance points per game (15.6) while the Warriors rank 21st (12.6).
- Golden State averages 29.0 assists per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Denver ranks 16th in assists allowed per game (24.8).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while Golden State ranks ninth (44.0).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.3) while the Warriors rank 28th (42.8).
- The Nuggets rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (31.3) while the Warriors rank 26th in three pointers allowed per game (33.6).
- Denver ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while Golden State ranks 25th (15.3).
- When allowing under 100 points, Denver is 20-1 and Golden State is 6-0.
- The Nuggets are 41-16 when they reach 100 points, while the Warriors are 44-13.
- Denver is 13-18 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 11-20-1 ATS at home.
- In 31 road games, the Nuggets have 19 unders and 12 overs.
- The Warriors have 18 unders and 14 overs in 32 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Warriors are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Denver has 5 unders, while Golden State has 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.8, down from 5.1 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 111.4 points per game (6.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 116.8 points per game (4.4 above their season average).
