The Denver Nuggets (37-15) visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons (22-29). The Nuggets are a 4-point favorite and will attempt to prolong their six-game winning streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 209 points and it will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, February 4, 2019.
Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons Betting Odds
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they won a close one over the Minnesota Timberwolves, 107-106, despite being 1.5-point underdogs. The Pistons, meanwhile, were topped by the Los Angeles Clippers, 111-101, and were unable to cover as 2-point underdogs. The Denver game went 9 points under the projected point total of 222, while the Detroit game went 3.5 points under the projected point total of 215.5.
The Nuggets held the Timberwolves to an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.5 (below their season average of 25.3) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.551 (above their season average of 0.534). Detroit, on the other hand, was lights out from beyond the arc (17-42; 40.5 percent). Detroit’s Blake Griffin led the way, finishing with 24 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. Denver was lifted by Nikola Jokic, who recorded his eighth triple-double this season. He played well, collecting 13 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists.
The Nuggets dominated this series last year, securing victories in both contests. In the most recent contest, Denver won 120-113. One of Denver’s largest strengths was getting to the charity stripe. They made 28 trips to the line, while Detroit went 17 times. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
It’s tough to find a trend for games including the Nuggets in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Denver comes into the game with records of 37-15 straight up (SU) and 29-23 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas tends to place the total high when the Pistons are involved, as 30 of their 52 games have gone under the projected point total. Additionally, Detroit owns records of 22-29 SU and 22-28-1 ATS.
The Nuggets’ Jokic has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 27 points,14.0 rebounds,7.6 assists,2.2 steals per game. Meanwhile, Reggie Jackson has averaged 16 points,5.6 assists during that same time frame for the Pistons.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Detroit ranks 21st in possessions per game (101.6) and Denver is 28th (99.6). Also, the Nuggets are among the league’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.8 percent). The Pistons, however, rank third at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.6 percent.
Denver Nuggets vs. Detroit Pistons Betting Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while the Pistons rank 11th (44.1).
- Denver ranks third in assists per game (27.4) while Detroit ranks 26th (22.1).
- The Nuggets rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Pistons rank 21st (17.3).
- Detroit ranks first in three pointers allowed per game (27.7) while Denver ranks 18th (32.3).
- Denver ranks 16th in blocks allowed per game (5.1) while Detroit ranks 27th (5.6).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.0) while the Pistons rank 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.3).
- The Nuggets rank 17th in fast break points per game (12.1) while the Pistons rank last (9.5).
- Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.6) while Detroit ranks 21st (13.0).
- When holding opponents under 100 points, Detroit is 7-2 and Denver is 17-1.
- The Nuggets are 35-10 when they score more than 100 points, while the Pistons are 19-19.
- Detroit is 10-16-1 ATS at home, while Denver is 10-15 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 15 of the Pistons’ 27 home games, while 15 of the Nuggets’ 25 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Pistons are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Detroit has 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.0, up from 5.8 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 99.6 points per game (5.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.0 points per game (5.3 below their season average).
