The Denver Nuggets (25-11), 2-point underdogs, will travel to the American Airlines Center to meet the Dallas Mavericks (23-13). The game can be seen on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 8, 2020.
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds
Both teams covered as favorites in their last game. The Mavericks (7.5-point favorites) defeated the Chicago Bulls 118-110, while the Nuggets (7-point favorites) beat the Atlanta Hawks 123-115. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Dallas game went 10.5 points over the projected point total of 217.5, while the Denver game went 13.5 points over the projected point total of 224.5.
The Nuggets had an extraordinarily low turnover percentage of 3.7 (better than their season average of 11.7) and held the Hawks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.5 (below their season average of 21.0). The Mavericks, on the other hand, knocked down 14 of their 19 free throws (73.7 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.619 (above their season average of 0.543). Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas with 38 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists to notch his 10th triple-double this year. Denver, meanwhile, rallied around Nikola Jokic, who finished with 47 points, eight rebounds and five assists.
In their first matchup this year, Kristaps Porzingis led the Mavericks to a 109-106 win. He registered a double-double with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Dallas covered as a 6-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 215 points, which was just under the projected point total of 216. Dallas’ 0.167 free throw rate was their largest strength over Denver, who had a mark of 0.099.
Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Nuggets are playing, as 20 of their 36 contests have ended under the projected point total. Denver is 25-11 straight up (SU), but they have a hard time covering the spread (13-18-5 against the spread (ATS)).
Unlike Denver, Mavericks games have typically finished over the O/U total (63.9 percent). Additionally, Dallas owns records of 23-13 SU and 21-15 ATS.
The high-octane offense of Dallas (first in the league with an offensive efficiency of 114.6) will battle against the mid-tier defense of Denver (13th in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 105.8). The Mavericks should have the edge on that end of the court.
Nuggets at Mavericks ATS Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
- The Nuggets rank seventh in second chance points per game (14.0) while the Mavericks rank 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.0).
- Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.6) while Denver ranks 26th (29.9).
- The Mavericks rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.7) while the Nuggets rank 19th (44.7).
- Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while Denver ranks 11th (4.7).
- Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.3) while Dallas ranks 13th (24.5).
- The Nuggets rank eighth in fast break points allowed per game (12.2) while the Mavericks rank last (16.4).
- The Nuggets average 49.9 points in the paint per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Mavericks rank 16th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.4).
- Denver ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.3) while Dallas ranks sixth (15.1).
- Denver ranks 12th in steals per game (7.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.5).
- When holding opponents under 100 points, Dallas is 5-0 and Denver is 10-1.
- The Nuggets are 23-7 when they score above 100 points, while the Mavericks are 23-11.
- Dallas is 8-11 ATS at home, while Denver is 7-8-2 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 9 of the Nuggets’ 17 road games, while 12 of the Mavericks’ 19 home games have gone over.
- In their last five games, Denver and Dallas are both 2-3 ATS.
- The Nuggets have 5 overs over their last five games, while the Mavericks have 3 overs and 2 unders
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 117.0 points per game (7.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 120.8 points per game (15.6 above their season average).
- The Mavericks have been outscored by an average of 0.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has defeated opponents by an average of 7.4 points.