The Dallas Mavericks (28-43) and the Sacramento Kings (34-36) clash at Golden 1 Center. The Mavericks are 8.5-point underdogs and can snap an eight-game road losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 229 points and it can be seen on NBC Sports – California at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 21, 2019.
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings Betting Odds
Both teams lost in their last game. The Kings (3.5-point favorites) were defeated by the Brooklyn Nets, 123-121, while the Mavericks (5-point underdogs) fell to the Portland Trail Blazers, 126-118. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Sacramento game finished 13 points over the projected point total of 231, while the Dallas game went 12 points over the projected point total of 232.
Dallas had a better turnover percentage (10.1 vs. 12.1) while Sacramento had an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.8 (above their season average of 22.5). De’Aaron Fox had a solid game for Sacramento with 27 points and nine assists. Dallas was led by Luka Doncic, who finished with 24 points, six assists and five rebounds.
In their first matchup this year, Fox led the Kings to a 120-113 win. He produced 28 points and five assists. Sacramento covered as a 5-point underdog and the two teams combined for 233 points, which was over the projected point total of 222. Sacramento had a better turnover percentage (7.7 vs. 11.3). Dallas, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.8 vs. 22.9).
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Mavericks games, with 38 unders compared to 31 overs. Although Dallas has difficulty winning games straight up (28-43 SU), they have a solid record against the spread (39-30-1).
Unlike Dallas, games involving the Kings have finished over the total 50.0 percent of the time. Moreover, Sacramento is 34-36 SU and 41-28-1 ATS.
It will be a matchup of conflicting tempos as the fast-breaking Kings (ranked fifth in the NBA in possessions per game) will look to push the more methodical Mavericks (21st in possessions per game). Ball protection could be troublesome for the Mavericks. They rank 24th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.9 percent), while the Kings force the fifth-most turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.8 percent).
Mavericks at Kings ATS Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Kings, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Kings rank 11th in assists per game (25.5) while the Mavericks rank 16th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
- Sacramento ranks first in points off turnovers per game (19.7) while Dallas ranks 28th (14.9).
- The Mavericks rank 10th in rebounds allowed per game (44.4) while the Kings rank last (48.4).
- Dallas ranks 11th in second chance points allowed per game (12.9) while Sacramento ranks 27th (14.4).
- Dallas ranks 12th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.5) while Sacramento ranks 27th (51.8).
- The Kings rank first in fast break points per game (21.1) while the Mavericks rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (16.2).
- The Kings rank seventh in steals per game (8.5) while the Mavericks rank 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.1).
- Sacramento ranks 23rd in blocks per game (4.5) while Dallas ranks 25th (4.3).
- Dallas ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (35.8) while Sacramento ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (34.1).
- When holding opponents below 100 points, Sacramento is 10-0 and Dallas is 10-4.
- In games where they score above 100 points, the Kings are 32-32 and the Mavericks are 27-33.
- Sacramento is 23-12-1 ATS at home, while Dallas is 17-17 ATS on the road.
- The Mavericks have 17 unders, 16 overs and 1 push in 34 road games.
- In 36 home games, the Kings have 20 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.
Bettings Trends:
- The Kings are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-2-1.
- In their last five games, Sacramento has 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push, while Dallas has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Kings have outscored opponents by an average of 0.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Sacramento has lost by an average of 1.0 point.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 113.6 points per game (5.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.6 points per game (6.5 above their season average).