The Dallas Mavericks (11-6), 1-point favorites, will travel to Talking Stick Resort Arena to square off with the Phoenix Suns (8-9). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 232 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Arizona at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, November 29, 2019.
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns ATS Odds
Both teams lost in their last matchup. The Mavericks (2-point underdogs) were defeated by the Los Angeles Clippers, 114-99, while the Suns (6.5-point favorites) fell to the Washington Wizards, 140-132. The Dallas game went 12.5 points under the projected point total of 225.5, while the Phoenix game went 32.5 points over the projected point total of 239.5.
Dallas did a terrific job of getting and making free throws (28-35; 80.0 percent) while Phoenix had an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.6 (above their season average of 18.4). Phoenix’s Dario Saric played well, recording 17 points and 12 rebounds. Meanwhile, Dallas rallied around Luka Doncic, who contributed 22 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
This series was highly contested last year. Each won two of the four games played against each other last season. The Mavericks won the last game 120-109. Dallas won the rebounding battle. The Mavericks had more offensive rebounds (18 vs. 5), defensive rebounds (46 vs. 33) and total rebounds (64 vs. 38). This will be the first game of the year between these two teams.
Of the Mavericks’ 17 games, 11 have gone over the O/U total. Dallas holds records of 11-6 straight up (SU) and 9-8 against the spread (ATS).
Similarly to Dallas, games featuring the Suns also have a tendency to go over the O/U total (58.8 percent). Additionally, Phoenix is 8-9 SU and 10-7 ATS.
The high-powered offense of Phoenix (sixth in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 109.5) will face off against the mid-tier defense of Dallas (18th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 107.8). The Suns should have the advantage on that end of the court. Furthermore, the Mavericks rank third in turnover percentage (12.4 percent), while the Suns rank third in opponents’ turnover percentage (15.8 percent).
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Suns rank second in assists per game (27.5) while the Mavericks rank 12th (24.8).
- Phoenix ranks third in points off turnovers per game (20.1) while Dallas ranks 26th (14.8).
- The Suns rank eighth in fast break points per game (14.9) while the Mavericks rank 24th in fast break points allowed per game (15.2).
- Dallas ranks third in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Phoenix ranks 18th (5.5).
- Phoenix ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (31.6) while Dallas ranks 14th (33.4).
- The Mavericks rank fifth in rebounds per game (47.6) while the Suns rank 26th (42.2).
- The Suns rank 15th in steals per game (7.6) while the Mavericks rank 25th (6.5).
- Dallas ranks 15th in points in the paint per game (47.5) while Phoenix ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (50.0).
- Dallas ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.5) while Phoenix ranks 25th (10.6).
- In games where they allow under 100 points, Dallas is 1-0 and Phoenix is 2-2.
- In games where they reach 100 points, the Suns are 8-7 and the Mavericks are 11-5.
- Dallas is 5-2 ATS on the road, while Phoenix is 6-5 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 5 of the Mavericks’ 7 road games, while 8 of the Suns’ 11 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Dallas and Phoenix have both had 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 1-4.
- The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 19.2, up from 7.7 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 114.6 points per game (0.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 119.6 points per game (7.1 above their season average).
