The Dallas Mavericks (29-45) will travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to clash against the Miami Heat (36-38). The Mavericks opened as 7.5-point underdogs. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 208.5 points and it starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 28, 2019.
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Betting Odds
Both teams fell in their last game. The Heat (3.5-point favorites) were defeated by the Orlando Magic, 104-99, while the Mavericks (2-point underdogs) fell to the Sacramento Kings, 125-121. The Miami game finished 2 points under the projected point total of 205, while the Dallas game went 20 points over the projected point total of 226.
Dallas did an excellent job of getting and making free throws (28-32; 87.5 percent) while Miami had a better turnover percentage (10.4 vs. 13.1). Miami’s Dwyane Wade had a good outing, putting up 22 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. Luka Doncic, meanwhile led the way for Dallas with 28 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists to record his sixth triple-double of the season.
In their first matchup this year, Justise Winslow led the Heat to a 112-101 victory. He notched a double-double with 11 points and 11 rebounds. The two teams combined to score 213 points, which was over the projected point total of 207.5, and Miami covered as a 3-point underdog. Miami made 12 of their 30 three pointers (40.0 percent), while Dallas was 15-52 (28.8 percent).
Of the Mavericks’ 74 games, 40 have finished under the projected point total. Although Dallas struggles winning games straight up (29-45 SU), they have a respectable record against the spread (41-32-1).
In opposition of Dallas, just over half of Heat games have finished over the total. Additionally, Miami owns records of 36-38 SU and 39-34-1 ATS.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams battle. Miami currently ranks 27th in possessions per game (100.1) and Dallas is 21st (101.3).
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Heat average 14.2 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 13th in second chance points allowed per game (13.2).
- Miami ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (12.4) while Dallas ranks last (16.6).
- The Heat rank 13th in steals per game (7.6) while the Mavericks rank 25th (6.8).
- Miami ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.2) while Dallas ranks 11th (47.7).
- Miami ranks 21st in points off turnovers per game (15.6) while Dallas ranks 28th (14.7).
- The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Mavericks rank 24th (4.3).
- The Heat rank 17th in assists per game (24.1) while the Mavericks rank 25th (23.0).
- Dallas averages 36.1 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Miami ranks 18th in three pointers allowed per game (32.7).
- When holding opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 11-4 and Miami is 19-3.
- The Heat are 32-19 when they score over 100 points, while the Mavericks are 28-35.
- Dallas is 19-18 ATS on the road, while Miami is 15-22-1 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 20 of the Heat’s 38 home games, while 19 of the Mavericks’ 37 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Dallas and Miami have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Heat are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-3.
- The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.0, up from 0.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 118.0 points per game (9.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 117.4 points per game (7.3 above their season average).
