Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies ATS Prediction 11/09/19

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The Dallas Mavericks (5-3) will be at FedExForum to clash with the Memphis Grizzlies (2-6) in a Southwest Division matchup. Action gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 9, 2019, and can be seen on Fox Sports – Southeast.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Odds

In their last matchup, the Grizzlies (3.5-point favorites) were defeated by the Orlando Magic, 118-86, while the Mavericks (7-point favorites) fell to the New York Knicks, 106-102. The Memphis game went 20.5 points under the projected point total of 224.5, while the Dallas game finished 0.5 points over the projected point total of 207.5.

Dallas had a better effective field goal percentage (0.489 vs. 0.494) while Memphis had a better effective field goal percentage (0.436 vs. 0.511). Memphis received a boost from Brandon Clarke, who put up 13 points and six rebounds. Luka Doncic, meanwhile played a massive role in the victory for Dallas, racking up 38 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists on his way to his third triple-double of the season.

The Grizzlies captured this series last year, winning three out of four games. In the last matchup, Dallas won 129-127. The Mavericks’ 5.0 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Grizzlies, who had a rate of 6.0.

Vegas tends to set the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as five of their seven contests have finished over the total. Dallas is 5-3 straight up (SU), but they are just 3-4 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Dallas, games featuring the Grizzlies have a tendency to go under the O/U total (57.1 percent). Additionally, Memphis owns records of 2-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.

This has potential to be a sloppy game for the offense of Dallas. Since the 2018-19 season, Dallas ranks 19th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 13.4 percent), while the gambling defense of Memphis has forced the fourth-most turnovers in the league (14.6 percent).

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies Free Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2018-Present):

  • The Grizzlies rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.5) while the Mavericks rank 11th (47.7).
  • Memphis ranks sixth in steals per game (8.3) while Dallas ranks 29th (6.4).
  • The Grizzlies rank 12th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while the Mavericks rank 28th (14.5).
  • Dallas ranks 12th in rebounds per game (45.6) while Memphis ranks 28th (42.2).
  • Dallas ranks 18th in second chance points per game (13.0) while Memphis ranks 27th (11.4).
  • The Mavericks rank third in three pointers attempted per game (36.9) while the Grizzlies rank 24th (28.9).
  • The Grizzlies average 12.9 fast break points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. The Mavericks rank last in fast break points allowed per game (16.6).
  • Memphis ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while Dallas ranks 25th (4.3).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, Memphis is 15-7 and Dallas is 11-4.
  • The Grizzlies are 26-25 when they score more than 100 points, while the Mavericks are 37-40.