The Dallas Mavericks (18-38) will attempt to snap the seven-game winning streak of Houston when they travel to Toyota Center to take on the Rockets (41-13). Houston is a 13-point favorite on the opening line, while the games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216.5 points. Action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 11, 2018, and it can be seen on NBATV.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Odds Preview
In the Mavericks last contest, they beat the Los Angeles Lakers, 130-123. With 21 points and six rebounds, Harrison Barnes played well for Dallas. Dallas dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an extraordinarily low turnover percentage of 8.2 (better than their season average of 11.3) and a free throw rate of 0.247 (above their season average of 0.171). Los Angeles was 15.4 and 0.179, respectively, for those same stats.
The Rockets will look to keep it rolling after dismantling the Denver Nuggets in their last outing, 130-104. Houston rallied around Clint Capela, who had 23 points and 25 rebounds. Houston dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.6 (above their season average of 21.6) and a free throw rate of 0.291 (above their season average of 0.237). Denver recorded marks of 15.9 and 0.193, respectively, for those same stats.
Houston could dominate on the offensive side of the ball as their productive offense goes up against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. The Rockets currently rank second in offensive efficiency, while Dallas ranks 21st in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Mavericks rank 30th in offensive rebounding percentage (17.8 percent), while the Rockets rank second in defensive rebounding percentage (81.3 percent).
Of Dallas 55 games with betting action, 31 have finished under the O/U total, while 27 of Houston’s 54 games have finished under the projected point total. The Rockets have the significant advantage straight up (SU) (41-13 vs. 18-38), but both teams are close to the .500 mark against the spread (ATS).
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Mavericks, it’s been Dirk Nowitzki, who has averaged 13.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals, while the Rockets have gotten great contributions from Capela (14.2 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.4 blocks).
These two teams have already met twice this year, with the Rockets winning both. In the most recent matchup, James Harden had 25 points, 13 assists and five rebounds and the Rockets defeated the Mavericks 104-97, covering as 6.5-point favorites. The two teams combined for 201 points, which was 15.5 points below the projected point total of 216.5 points. The Rockets’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Mavericks. Houston had a rate of 8.9, while Dallas posted a mark of 12.6.
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets ATS Prediction
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Rockets rank fourth in steals per game (8.8) while the Mavericks rank 22nd (7.1).
- Houston ranks 16th in blocks per game (4.7) while Dallas ranks 27th (3.8).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.6) while Dallas ranks 15th in three pointers allowed per game (29.2).
- Houston is 11-15-1 ATS at home, while Dallas is 15-12 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 16 of the Rockets 27 home games, while 14 of the Mavericks 27 road games have gone under.
- Houston is 18-2 when they allow under 100 points, while Dallas is 13-10.
- The Mavericks are 12-17 when they score over 100 points, while the Rockets are 40-10.
- The Rockets rank 18th in second chance points per game (11.7) while the Mavericks rank last (10.0).
- Dallas ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (40.3) while Houston ranks 27th (47.8).
- The Rockets rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while the Mavericks rank 25th (45.1).
- The Rockets average 11.2 fast break points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. The Mavericks rank 26th in fast break points allowed per game (13.9).
- Houston ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while Dallas ranks 29th (14.3).
Betting Trends:
- Houston is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Rockets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 17.4, up from 8.6 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 105.6 points per game (3.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.8 points per game (5.5 above their season average).
