The Denver Nuggets (22-21) will be at home in Pepsi Center when they go head-to-head against the Dallas Mavericks (15-29). Denver is a 5.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 211 points. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Free Preview
The last time the Mavericks played, they fell to the Los Angeles Lakers, 107-101. Dallas Yogi Ferrell recorded 11 points and 10 rebounds in the contest. Los Angeles held the Mavericks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 7.7 (below their season average of 17.0). Dallas, on the other hand, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (22-28; 78.6 percent).
The Nuggets are hoping for a better outcome after their 112-80 loss to the San Antonio Spurs in their last game. Nikola Jokic was the games leading scorer with 23 points on 8-for-13 shooting. San Antonio was lights out from beyond the arc (14-27; 51.9 percent). Denver, meanwhile, held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.3 (below their season average of 23.4).
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.5 percent), while Dallas ranks fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.7 percent). Moreover, the Mavericks, who rank 27th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.171), will square off against the Nuggets, who rank fourth in opponents FTA rate (0.166).
Of Dallas 44 games, 23 have finished under the projected point total, while 25 of Denver’s 43 games have finished under the O/U total. The Nuggets have the superior straight up (SU) record (22-21 vs. 15-29), but the Mavericks have the better against the spread (ATS) record (22-22 vs. 20-21-2).
Dennis Smith Jr. has really been playing well over the last five games for Dallas, averaging 15.0 points, 5.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game.
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 227 points, well over the projected point total of 209. The Mavericks won 122-105, covering as 2-point favorites. Dallas effective field goal percentage was its biggest advantage over Denver. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.640 while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.495. In the loss, Will Barton led all scorers with 23 points.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Mavericks rank 26th (45.3).
- Denver ranks 17th in blocks per game (4.6) while Dallas ranks 28th (3.7).
- Denver averages 13.4 fast break points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (14.4).
- Dallas ranks 14th in assists per game (22.7) while Denver ranks 24th in assists allowed per game (24.2).
- Denver is 12-8 ATS at home, while Dallas is 11-9 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 12 of the Nuggets 20 home games, while 10 of the Mavericks 20 road games have gone over.
- Dallas is 11-8 when they allow under 100 points, while Denver is 12-2.
- In games where they reach 100 points, the Mavericks are 10-13 and the Nuggets are 17-12.
- The Nuggets rank 15th in steals per game (7.7) while the Mavericks rank 26th (6.7).
- Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (14.7) while Dallas ranks last (9.4).
- The Mavericks rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.8) while the Nuggets rank 28th (19.3).
- The Mavericks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.2) while the Nuggets rank 15th in three pointers allowed per game (28.8).
- Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (48.5) while Dallas ranks 29th (38.7).
Betting Trends:
- Denver is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 10.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 0.6 points.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 110.0 points per game (7.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.8 points per game (4.3 above their season average).
