Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic ATS Prediction 02/21/20

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The league’s top scoring defense will be a 3.5-point underdog at home in Amway Center, when the Orlando Magic (24-31) meet the Dallas Mavericks (33-22). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 220.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southwest at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, February 21, 2020.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Orlando Magic ATS Odds

The Mavericks come in on a high note after comfortably covering the 8.5-point spread against the Sacramento Kings in their last matchup, 130-111. The Magic, meanwhile, defeated the Detroit Pistons,116-112, but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Dallas game finished 15 points over the projected point total of 226, while the Orlando game went 19 points over the projected point total of 209.

The Mavericks, who came into the game averaging an effective field goal percentage of 0.544, had a ridiculous mark of 0.665 and had a better free throw rate (0.200 vs. 0.172). The Magic, meanwhile, forced 20 turnovers, while the Pistons had a free throw rate of 0.152 (below their season average of 0.197). Orlando was lifted by Markelle Fultz, who recorded 22 points, 10 assists and five rebounds. Luka Doncic, meanwhile was a key piece for Dallas with 33 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists.

In their first matchup this year, Doncic led the Mavericks to a 107-106 win. He scored a game-high 27 points. Dallas was unable to cover as a 7-point favorite and the two teams combined for 213 points, which was over the projected point total of 207.5. The Mavericks’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Magic. Dallas had a rate of 14.9, while Orlando posted a mark of 16.3.

Of the Mavericks’ 55 games, 35 have finished over the total. Dallas comes into the game with records of 33-22 straight up (SU) and 32-23 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Dallas, just over half of Magic games have finished under the O/U total. Moreover, Orlando is 24-31 SU and 23-28-4 ATS.

The Mavericks’ Tim Hardaway Jr. has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 21 points,4.2 assists per game. Meanwhile, Aaron Gordon has averaged 18 points,8.8 rebounds,4.6 assists,1.2 steals during that same time frame for the Magic.

Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Orlando ranks 29th in possessions per game (99.5) and Dallas is 21st (101.0).

Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic Odds Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Magic, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Magic rank 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while the Mavericks rank 25th (14.8).
  • Orlando ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.6) while Dallas ranks 29th (16.6).
  • The Magic rank first in second chance points allowed per game (11.4) while the Mavericks rank 19th (13.5).
  • Orlando ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.8) while Dallas ranks 20th (4.7).
  • Orlando ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.6) while Dallas ranks 19th (49.1).
  • The Magic rank fourth in steals per game (8.5) while the Mavericks rank 28th (6.0).
  • The Mavericks rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.0) while the Magic rank 19th (44.5).
  • Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.0) while Orlando ranks 20th (31.6).
  • Orlando is 12-4 when they allow under 100 points, while Dallas is 8-0.
  • When reaching the century mark, the Mavericks are 33-20 and the Magic are 20-12.
  • Dallas is 20-6 ATS on the road, while Orlando is 10-16-2 ATS at home.
  • In 26 road games, the Mavericks have 17 overs and 9 unders.
  • The Magic have 18 unders and 10 overs in 28 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Mavericks are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Magic are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Dallas has 5 overs, while Orlando has 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 118.0 points per game (1.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.8 points per game (4.3 above their season average).
  • The Magic’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.2, up from 1.5 for the season.