Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction 12/16/19

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Expect a high-scoring game when the Dallas Mavericks (17-8), 11-point underdogs, square off against the Milwaukee Bucks (24-3) at Fiserv Forum. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 227 points and it can be seen on NBATV at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 16, 2019.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

The Bucks beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game, 125-108, covering as 14.5-point favorites. The Mavericks, on the other hand, were topped by the Miami Heat, 122-118, and were not able to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Milwaukee game went 11 points over the projected point total of 222, while the Dallas game finished 24.5 points over the projected point total of 215.5.

Milwaukee dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.224 (above their season average of 0.200) and a turnover percentage of 11.1 (better than their season average of 12.5). For those same stats, Cleveland had marks of 0.122 and 15.7, respectively. Dallas, on the other hand, held Miami to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.1 (below their season average of 22.0). Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton played well, finishing with 24 points and six assists. Meanwhile, Dallas was led by Kristaps Porzingis, who recorded 22 points and 14 rebounds.

The Bucks dominated this series last year, taking both contests. In the last contest, Milwaukee won 122-107. The Bucks’ 26.3 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Mavericks, who had a mark of 18.0. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Oddsmakers have a tendency to set the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 16 of their 25 contests have ended over the projected point total. Dallas heads into the contest with records of 17-8 straight up (SU) and 15-10 against the spread (ATS).

Games including the Bucks also tend to finish over the O/U total (55.6 percent). Moreover, Milwaukee is 24-3 SU and 15-12 ATS.

It might turn into a shootout as two of the league’s top offenses battle. Milwaukee currently ranks second with 113.6 points per 100 possessions and Dallas is first (115.3). Also, the Mavericks are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.0 percent). The Bucks, meanwhile, rank second at grabbing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 80.6 percent.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Mavericks average 47.9 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Bucks rank 18th in rebounds allowed per game (45.9).
  • Dallas averages 40.8 three pointers per game, which ranks second in the league. Milwaukee ranks 29th in three pointers allowed per game (38.4).
  • The Bucks rank fifth in points off turnovers per game (19.0) while the Mavericks rank 23rd (15.6).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in points in the paint per game (53.3) while Dallas ranks 17th (46.7).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in second chance points allowed per game (10.6) while Dallas ranks 15th (13.0).
  • The Bucks average 19.2 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 25th in fast break points allowed per game (15.1).
  • The Bucks rank 13th in steals per game (7.8) while the Mavericks rank 28th (6.3).
  • Dallas ranks 13th in assists per game (24.6) while Milwaukee ranks 16th in assists allowed per game (24.1).
  • Milwaukee ranks seventh in blocks per game (5.9) while Dallas ranks 25th (4.4).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Dallas is 3-0 and Milwaukee is 6-0.
  • In games where they reach the century mark, the Bucks are 24-3 and the Mavericks are 17-7.
  • Dallas is 9-2 ATS on the road, while Milwaukee is 8-6 ATS at home.
  • In 11 road games, the Mavericks have 7 overs and 4 unders.
  • In 14 home games, the Bucks have 8 overs and 6 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Bucks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Milwaukee has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Dallas has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.4, up from 13.6 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 119.4 points per game (1.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.2 points per game (0.8 below their season average).