The undefeated and 6-point favorite Denver Nuggets (3-0) hope to remain perfect when they challenge the Dallas Mavericks (2-1) at Pepsi Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216 points and it will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, October 29, 2019.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
The Nuggets hope to maintain momentum after topping the Sacramento Kings in their last contest, 101-94, as 12-point underdogs. The Mavericks, on the other hand, were beat by the Portland Trail Blazers, 121-119, and were unable to cover as 3-point underdogs. The Denver game went 23 points under the projected point total of 218, while the Dallas game went 21.5 points over the projected point total of 218.5.
Denver played a nearly perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.194 and a turnover percentage of 8.5. For those same stats, Sacramento was 0.110 and 10.9, respectively. Dallas, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (8.9 vs. 14.0). Denver rallied around Nikola Jokic, who put up nine points and 13 rebounds. Luka Doncic, meanwhile played a key role for Dallas with 29 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists.
The Nuggets dominated this series last year, winning all three contests. In the most recent game, Denver won 100-99. One of Denver’s largest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 14-17 (82.4 percent), while the Mavericks were 13-17 (76.5 percent).
Since last season, the Mavericks are 35-50 straight up (SU) and 42-42-1 against the spread (ATS). Dallas games have gone under the O/U total 51.8 percent of the time since last season.
On the other hand, the Nuggets, have records of 57-28 SU and 38-43-3 ATS since last season. Games including Denver have gone over the O/U total 50.0 percent of the time over that same time frame.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Denver ranks 27th in possessions per game (100.0) and Dallas is 21st (101.6) dating back to last season.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes (2018-Present):
- The Nuggets rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while the Mavericks rank 11th (15.6).
- Denver ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while Dallas ranks last (16.8).
- The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.6) while the Mavericks rank 19th (13.0).
- Dallas ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (36.8) while Denver ranks 18th (30.9).
- Denver ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while Dallas ranks 13th (44.9).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (51.5) while the Mavericks rank 24th (44.5).
- The Nuggets rank 16th in steals per game (7.5) while the Mavericks rank 27th (6.5).
- Denver ranks 24th in blocks per game (4.5) while Dallas ranks 26th (4.3).
- Denver ranks third in assists per game (26.7) while Dallas ranks 22nd (23.4).
- Dallas is 11-4 when they allow below 100 points, while Denver is 29-3.
- When scoring over 100 points, the Nuggets are 59-24 and the Mavericks are 34-38.