Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction 03/14/19

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The Dallas Mavericks (27-40) and the Denver Nuggets (44-22) go head-to-head at Pepsi Center. The Mavericks are 11-point underdogs and will try to put an end to their six-game losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 220 points and action gets underway at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 14, 2019.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds

The Nuggets had no trouble getting past the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last contest, 133-107, easily covering as 9.5-point favorites. The Mavericks, meanwhile, were topped by the San Antonio Spurs, 112-105, and failed to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. The Denver game went 13 points over the projected point total of 227, while the Dallas game finished 0.5 points under the projected point total of 217.5.

Denver’s 0.706 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Minnesota, who had a mark of 0.522. The Nuggets’ mark was above their season average of 0.528. Dallas, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (22.5 vs. 19.4). Jamal Murray had a good game for Denver, contributing 30 points. Dallas received a boost from Jalen Brunson, who contributed 34 points and five rebounds.

The Nuggets have won both matchups against the Mavericks this year. The two teams combined to score 218 points in their most recent game, which was just under the projected point total of 222. Denver won 114-104, covering as a 6.5-point favorite. Denver won the rebounding battle. The Nuggets had 21 offensive rebounds and 63 total rebounds, while the Mavericks had seven and 42, respectively. Nikola Jokic put up a double-double in the victory with 19 points and 13 rebounds.

Of the Mavericks’ 67 games, 37 have finished under the total. Dallas holds records of 27-40 straight up (SU) and 38-29 against the spread (ATS).

Much like Dallas, a little over half of Nuggets games have finished under the total. Additionally, Denver owns records of 44-22 SU and 36-30 ATS.

Half-court execution will be critical when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Denver ranks 23rd in possessions per game (100.8) and Dallas is 21st (101.5).

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets Free Pick

NBA Tip: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while the Mavericks rank 11th (44.4).
  • Denver ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (12.1) while Dallas ranks 27th (16.3).
  • The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.7) while the Mavericks rank 20th (12.9).
  • Dallas averages 35.9 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Denver ranks 17th in three pointers allowed per game (32.3).
  • Denver ranks 16th in points off turnovers per game (16.3) while Dallas ranks 26th (15.0).
  • The Nuggets rank second in assists per game (27.8) while the Mavericks rank 24th (22.7).
  • The Nuggets average 7.8 steals per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.3).
  • Neither of these teams are great at blocking the ball. Denver is 25th in the league with 4.5 blocks per game while Dallas is 27th with 4.3 blocks per game.
  • Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (53.0) while Dallas ranks 25th (44.4).
  • In games where they allow below 100 points, Dallas is 10-4 and Denver is 20-1.
  • The Mavericks are 26-31 when they score above 100 points, while the Nuggets are 42-17.
  • Denver is 23-11 ATS at home, while Dallas is 16-17 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 18 of the Nuggets’ 34 home games, while 16 of the Mavericks’ 33 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nuggets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Denver has 4 unders and 1 over, while Dallas has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.2, down from 5.1 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 103.0 points per game (4.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 115.2 points per game (5.6 above their season average).