Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics Betting Prediction 11/11/19

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It figures to be a high-scoring affair as the Dallas Mavericks (6-3), 3.5-point underdogs, visit Boston to play the Celtics (7-1). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 217.5 points and it gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, November 11, 2019.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics ATS Odds

Both teams covered in their last matchup. The Celtics (2-point underdogs) defeated the San Antonio Spurs 135-115, while the Mavericks (5.5-point favorite) beat the Memphis Grizzlies 138-122. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Boston game went 31.5 points over the projected point total of 218.5, while the Dallas game went 37.5 points over the projected point total of 222.5.

Dallas played a perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.165 (matching their season average) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 29.3 (above their season average of 23.1). Memphis recorded marks of 0.105 and 22.2, respectively, for those same stats. The Celtics, meanwhile, forced 15 turnovers and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.585 (above their season average of 0.506). Jaylen Brown played well for Boston with 30 points and seven rebounds. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic played well for Dallas, finishing with 24 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists.

This was a highly competitive series last year, as the teams split their two games last season. In the most recent contest, the Celtics won 114-93. The Celtics’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Mavericks. Boston had a rate of 26.9, while Dallas posted a mark of 22.0.

Vegas is known to set the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 66.7 percent of their contests have ended over the total. Dallas is 6-3 straight up (SU), but they are just 4-5 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Dallas, Celtics games tend to finish under the total (62.5 percent). Moreover, Boston owns records of 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS.

It might turn into a high-scoring affair as a pair of the league’s top offenses go head-to-head. Dating back to the 2018-19 season, Boston ranks fifth with 109.5 points per 100 possessions and Dallas is first (107.7).

Mavericks at Celtics Betting Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2018-Present):

  • The Celtics rank third in blocks allowed per game (4.1) while the Mavericks rank ninth (4.5).
  • Boston ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Dallas ranks 20th (7.9).
  • The Mavericks average 36.9 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Celtics rank 18th in three pointers allowed per game (33.8).
  • Boston ranks eighth in fast-break points per game (15.9) while Dallas ranks 22nd in fast-break points allowed per game (16.6).
  • Boston ranks seventh in assists per game (25.6) while Dallas ranks 15th in assists allowed per game (24.5).
  • The Celtics rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while the Mavericks rank 17th (15.8).
  • The Mavericks rank eighth in second chance points per game (13.0) while the Celtics rank 18th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
  • Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (45.6) while Boston ranks 19th (45.0).
  • When allowing below 100 points, Boston is 22-4 and Dallas is 11-4.
  • The Mavericks are 38-40 when they score more than 100 points, while the Celtics are 59-27.